2025 NFL MVP Stock Watch: Why Matthew Stafford Should Win His First MVP

Yes, I can already hear the disgust in your voice.

Matthew Stafford is your MVP? The Los Angeles Rams are going to finish third in their division, with (potentially) the No. 6 seed in the NFC playoffs and just lost to the underwhelming Atlanta Falcons — where Stafford threw three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown — and you’re still going to pick him as MVP?

Yep, I get it. But hear me out.

At 37, Stafford put together one of his best seasons statistically in his 17-year NFL career. Stafford leads the NFL in touchdown passes (42), is second in passing yards (4,448) and second in passer rating (108.8). 

Nick WORRIED about his Rams after losing to Falcons 😟 Did Stafford drop the MVP to Maye?

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, meanwhile, has been much more effective using his legs, with 408 rushing yards. Stafford has minus-2 yards rushing. But Stafford has done a better job of avoiding sacks, with 22 compared to Maye’s 47.

Maye deserves credit for leading the Patriots to a surprisingly quick turnaround at 13-3, including an AFC East division title and a shot at earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Maye is first in the NFL in passer rating (112.9), tied for third in passing touchdowns (30) and fourth in passing yards (4,203). Maye also leads the league in completion percentage (71.7%) and yards per attempt (8.9). 

However, New England played the easiest schedule this season, defeating one team with a winning record and playing one of the easiest schedules in recent memory in terms of opponents’ winning percentage and DVOA. Stafford, on the other hand, has had to grind through a gauntlet in the toughest division in the league in the NFC West. The Rams have played the sixth-toughest schedule this season.

Stafford admittedly has not been at his best recently, including a nose-pinching, three-interception performance in a road loss against the Falcons on Monday night as part of a five-game stretch with six interceptions. The Rams have lost three of their last five as a result.

During a six-game winning streak in the meat of the season, though, Stafford threw 19 touchdowns and no interceptions in leading the Rams to victories over playoff teams in the Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Jacksonville Jaguars, along with wins over potential playoff teams in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baltimore Ravens.

Josh Allen falls, Brock Purdy rises, Stafford vs. Maye on top of Mahomes Mountain

The MVP is not a lifetime achievement award. So, Stafford should not necessarily get credit for sustaining a high level of play for a longer period than Maye, who’s blossomed into an elite performer in just his second season. And while one could certainly argue that Maye has been the more consistent player this year, for me, Stafford has played his best against higher-quality opponents this season — like throwing for 457 yards on the road in an overtime loss against one of the best defenses in the league on the road in Seattle. 

For that reason, Stafford gets a slight nod here over Maye. But certainly, Maye or Christian McCaffrey would be legitimate choices in a year when no one has run away with the award.

That said, Maye jumped back in front of Stafford this week in MVP odds at -330 to Stafford’s +250, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has the next best odds, but he sits way back at +20000. Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Wiliams sits even further back at +25000.

Here’s a closer look at my top five for MVP Watch heading into the final week of the regular season. 

The Ohio State product leads the league with 1,709 receiving yards, is fourth in the NFL with 113 catches, fifth in yards per catch (15.0) and is tied for fifth with 10 touchdown catches. 

Smith-Njigba has been the most complete receiver in the league this year and the engine of Seattle’s dynamic passing offense, with Sam Darnold at the wheel. 

Odds to win MVP: +50000

Allen usually plays his best in December. Allen completed 64.8% of his passes for 392 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions over the past two weeks. Buffalo averaged 17.5 points per game during the stretch, including a close win on the road against Cleveland and a close loss at home against Philadelphia.

Allen will be the best player on the field in the postseason, but can he lead Buffalo to victories on the road with an inconsistent defense that has trouble stopping the run? 

Odds to win MVP: +30000

3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers

McCaffrey deserves more credit for what he has done in possibly leading San Francisco to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. He had another strong performance in a close win over the Chicago Bears last week. 

McCaffrey has 399 total touches this season, eclipsing Roger Craig and Frank Core for the most touches in a single season in San Francisco franchise history. 

Odds to win MVP: +50000

2. Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots

Maye sizzled against the struggling New York Jets, completing 90.5% of his passes for 256 yards and five touchdowns for a 157.0 passer rating in a 42-10 victory. 

Mike Vrabel on the Patriots clinching AFC East, Drake Maye’s MVP odds

Maye now has six games this year with a passer rating of at least 135, becoming the third quarterback in NFL history with six such games in a single season, joining Lamar Jackson (2024) and Tony Romo (2014). 

Odds to win MVP: -330

1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Los Angeles Rams

Although it was a rough performance, Stafford reached some milestones in his team’s loss to the Falcons, passing Ben Roethlisberger (64,088) in career passing yards to move to sixth all-time (64,257) in NFL history. Stafford also passed Roethlisberger (418) for eighth-most in passing touchdowns (419) all time.

For the season, Stafford has thrown at least two passing touchdowns in 10 consecutive games, tied for the sixth-longest streak in NFL history. He’s also thrown a passing touchdown in every game this season. 

Odds to win MVP: +250

Honorable mention: Myles Garrett, Jonathan Taylor, Jordan Love, Puka Nacua, Bo Nix.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.

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