2025 NFL Odds: Why Pete Carroll's Raiders Won't Hit 7.5 Wins

Geoff Schwartz

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Want to know the first two things I do when it’s time to preview a team for an upcoming season?

I grade the coaching staff and then, more importantly, I count up the game-wreckers on the roster.

By game-wreckers, I mean the players that opposing teams are circling, knowing that those are the guys they must stop to have a chance to win.

I recently applied this analysis to the Las Vegas Raiders.

L.V. upgraded its coaching staff this offseason. It hired Pete Carroll after he spent last season out of the profession. Carroll won a Super Bowl in Seattle and his teams were competitive almost every year. He also won a championship at USC before becoming the Seahawks head coach.

Carroll is a trusted mind who’s built winners and will add emotion and physicality to the Raiders.

One notable hire that Carroll made after locking down the head coaching position was Chip Kelly.

After Kelly helped Ohio State win the College Football Playoff in January, the Buckeyes’ offensive coordinator joined the Raiders coaching staff. Kelly had previously coached at UCLA and Oregon, and also in the NFL as the head coach in Philadelphia and San Francisco.

Kelly is a brilliant offensive mind and thrives in the coordinator role.

Patrick Graham, along with Carroll, will run the defense. All three together make a competent coaching staff that I trust will do the right thing on Sundays.

While I like the coaching staff, I’m not sure if I can say the same about the roster. It’s just missing those game-wreckers I mentioned earlier.

Can Geno Smith lead the Las Vegas Raiders back to relevance?

Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers are easy to add to the list. Maybe Ashton Jeanty is on the list without having played a snap in the NFL. I like Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers Johnson on the offensive line, but they don’t qualify as standouts.

This brings us to Geno Smith.

I think Smith is a good quarterback but not nearly as good as people give him credit for. He’s not a top-10 QB, and in a given year, he’s maybe top 12.

In his first year in Seattle, Smith had 10 games with a quarterback rating over 100. In 2023, his second year as a Seahawk, he had six games with a rating over 100. Last season, it was down to only four games over 100 quarterback rating. That is with a better receiving corps and an offensive line in the same tier.

Now, Smith goes to Vegas with no receivers. He’s a year older, and he’s in a much tougher division.

The Raiders will play their six division games, and if they are able to steal a few victories there, it would go a long way to hitting the win total. They also have games against the AFC South and NFC East, including difficult matchups with the Commanders and Eagles. There are easier games on the back end of the AFC South part of the schedule.

I’d lean toward Las Vegas’ Under this season even though I like the coaching staff and trust the Raiders to be prepared for every game. I just don’t think the team is all that talented and those teams tend to lose more than they win.

PICK: Raiders Under 7.5 regular-season wins

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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