The Edmonton Oilers may have successfully kept Evan Bouchard in the fold with a new four-year, $42 million contract, but the way the deal came together should raise red flags about his future. It’s a relief to have an elite offensive defenseman on the roster and locked up, but the team may have merely delayed a much bigger problem down the road.
The Threat Of An Offer Sheet Was Real
According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, the Oilers were forced to sweeten Bouchard’s deal to the tune of $10.5 million per season—$1 million more annually than initially expected—after the Carolina Hurricanes circled with a potential offer sheet. Rather than risk losing one of the NHL’s most dynamic offensive defensemen, Edmonton gave in. But that decision, while necessary in the short term, has set the stage for an even more complicated negotiation when this contract expires.
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What makes this situation particularly concerning for the Oilers is the signal it sends: Bouchard was potentially open to leaving the team. Offer sheets in the NHL only matter if a player is willing to sign one. Carolina could have only forced Edmonton’s hand because there was a legitimate belief that Bouchard might have accepted it. Unlike players such as Matthew Knies, who left no doubt about their commitment to their current team, the Oilers’ rushing to get this deal done showed Bouchard is willing to explore the open market if the price is right.
This isn’t just about a one-time deal. The very structure of the contract—a four-year term instead of the maximum eight—suggests Bouchard has his eyes on an even bigger payday when the salary cap is projected to rise significantly. General Manager Stan Bowman admitted as much, revealing that an eight-year deal was “never in the cards” because the asking price would have been “so high it didn’t make sense for anybody.”
In other words, Bouchard’s camp didn’t just want fair market value—they wanted flexibility and future leverage.
From the Oilers’ perspective, it was a necessary decision to keep their Stanley Cup window open. Yet, the choice may come back to bite them.
What Happens in Four Years?
Fast forward four years: Bouchard will be 28 and in his absolute prime. The salary cap, which Bowman himself acknowledged is set to rise, could skyrocket to levels that make today’s $10.5 million look modest. If Bouchard continues on his current trajectory, there’s every reason to believe he could command $14-15 million or more per season, especially if comparable contracts across the league continue to trend upwards.
More importantly, the precedent has now been set. The Oilers blinked in the face of an offer sheet once, and Bouchard’s side will have leverage if he continues to produce at his current rate. Unless Edmonton wins a Stanley Cup or two during this window—which would justify paying full value today—future negotiations could get interesting. Bouchard has no incentive to take a hometown discount, and he’s already shown he’s willing to use what leverage he does have.
This is not to suggest there is no loyalty when it comes to Bouchard. At the same time, he’s understandably thinking about the imminent cap boom and how to maximize earnings. That’s problematic for the Oilers, who will need top players to take team-friendly deals to build around their top stars.
In the end, the Oilers did what they had to do. But if Bouchard was willing to walk once, what makes anyone think he won’t consider it again?
