The Montreal Canadiens have admirably transformed a near-three-game losing streak on the weekend to a three-game winning (and four-game point) streak, further fortifying their chances of making the postseason in the process. Seeing as they earned a playoff spot by the skin of their teeth last season, with a win in Game 82, the chances are they’ll also improve on their finish in 2024-25, this season.
Obviously, nothing is guaranteed in that regard with 18 games left. Anything can happen. Case in point, while the Canadiens are certainly in a great position to improve on their undeniably successful 40-31-11, second-wild-card-spot finish from last season, improvement can take many forms.
Here are the top five realistic ways the Canadiens will be able to call 2025-26 a success:
5. Clinching a Berth Earlier
The Canadiens obviously cut it close last season. Had they failed to secure at least a point in that 82nd game to the Carolina Hurricanes, who were admittedly resting many of their regulars, they would have been edged out of their second wild-card spot by the Columbus Blue Jackets (by virtue of a tiebreaker for more regulation wins).
The Canadiens really only have themselves to blame, as they had been eight points up on the Blue Jackets with four games to play. They lost three straight before beating the Hurricanes to clinch. So, with one year of experience and more development under the belts of one of the league’s youngest teams, it’s far from outside the realm of possibility that the Habs find themselves in a position to clinch earlier than last year. It’s also likely that they’re better prepared to seize any opportunities to clinch as they arise.
In and of itself, clinching earlier doesn’t mean all that much, other than the implication it makes life easier on them down the stretch. This time around, they want to be in the Hurricanes’ position, being able to rest regulars late in the season, in advance of hopefully a long playoff run.
4. More Points in the Standings
The actual implication is, by clinching earlier, the Canadiens will also end up with more points in the standings relative to the 91 they finished with last season. Currently with 82 in 64 games (36-18-10), they’re actually poised to blow their last-season selves out of the water. All they need to get to 100 points is a .500 record the rest of the way.
It’s worth noting, more points in the standings is the widely accepted mark for year-over-year improvement, and it’s what most analysts have pointed to when crediting the Canadiens with improving each year of their rebuild starting from the point at which they bottomed out in 2021-22, finishing last in the standings with 55 points.
The Canadiens followed that up with 68 points in 2022-23, 76 in 2023-24 and their 91 last season, which was further reinforced by the unexpected playoff berth. Their 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons were each characterized by a fifth-from-last finish in the standings, though.
Few really cared, because finishing as low as the Canadiens did had little bearing on anything (especially with them having still managed to get “their guy” in Ivan Demidov at the 2024 NHL Entry Draft at No. 5). It was so early in the rebuild, that fans were generally willing to cling to any sign of progress. As the Canadiens continue on their path to eventually contending for the Stanley Cup, points turn into more of a means to an end than a meaningful metric of success. The end in question is of course playoff positioning.
3. Home-Ice Advantage in Round 1
Ending up in second place in the Atlantic Division at the Olympic break, which put the Canadiens in position to have home-ice advantage in Round 1, was something of an accomplishment. However, holding onto it won’t be easy. They’ve dropped into third place despite sustaining a single regulation loss in the seven games since (4-1-2).
Officially speaking, a top-three Atlantic finish would also constitute an improvement. Hell, just finishing in the first wild-card spot would as well. However, when your “prize” would be facing the red-hot Buffalo Sabres in Round 1 in the latter case or the similarly intimidating Tampa Bay Lightning in the former (based on how the standings currently shake out), such an accomplishment comes across as Pyrrhic in principle.
At least if the Canadiens were to face the Lightning, against whom they’re 0-1-1 so far this season (with two meetings left), they could fall back on having home-ice advantage with a top-two divisional finish, relying on the raucous Bell Centre crowds to cheer them on as a metaphorical sixth skater. That should be the ultimate goal this (regular) season, because, truth be told, the idea is to put themselves in the best position to go further in the postseason.
That’s the true ultimate goal every year, to play for as long as possible, even if it’s only a matter of mere games.
2. Better Showing in Round 1
Everyone remembers for example that the Canadiens parlayed a relatively mediocre 2020-21 season into a run to the Stanley Cup Final, where they ran into and lost to the Lightning. At the time, despite falling from grace into last place the following season, that defeat was nevertheless celebrated with optimism for the future (with no one being able to predict the losses of Shea Weber to “retirement” and Carey Price to a season-long injury and then “retirement,” which marked a huge drop in the calibre of the team and the eventual rebuild).
Related: The Best Canadiens Team Since 1993 Stanley Cup
What sometimes gets forgotten is how far away a Stanley Cup should have seemed after the five-game loss to the Bolts that Final. The Canadiens initially fell behind three games to none against a team much deeper than them in terms of talent. Based on how the Habs had been constructed from Price’s net out (with an albatross of a contract), then-general manager Marc Bergevin was going to have to radically “reset” the roster anyway to get the Habs back there, especially since his organizations’ two faces of the franchise were getting older and nearing actual retirement eventually. That’s why 2021-22 should be seen as a blessing in disguise. The suffering of that season and those that followed were a necessity.
It shouldn’t be lost on anyone that the Canadiens similarly fell to the Washington Capitals in five games in Round 1 last season, signalling they had further to go before contending as well. The difference between now and five years ago is the Habs are currently one of the youngest teams in the league and on the rise. The Habs of five years ago had more in common with last season’s Capitals as a team on the downswing. The Canadiens’ recent 6-2 victory over the Caps marked their opponents’ first of three straight losses ahead of the trade deadline and effectively the point at which their playoff hopes for 2026 got extinguished.
In contrast, the Canadiens are realistically on their way back to the postseason. At the absolute very least, they should be eyeing a better showing in Round 1, regardless of their eventual opponents. Going out in five games (or less), even if they improve in the standings in some fashion, would be incredibly disappointing.
1. Second-Round Finish (or Better)
It’s not second round of bust or anything that dramatic, as the above four entries show. The Canadiens can show year-over-year improvement in any number of ways. However, it’s easy to see winning even a single round going over incredibly well with the fanbase, even if that’s as far as they go (this season).
This team wasn’t meant to make the postseason last season, with their berth reinforcing just how far they’ve come in a relatively short period of time. The timeline of the rebuild hasn’t necessarily been accelerated, as current-GM Kent Hughes’ quiet deadline shows. There is nevertheless a quiet confidence that the Canadiens have what it takes to get back to the Final eventually through organic growth and the maturing of their young core.
It likely won’t be this spring, but, while they’d probably be seen as underdogs in Round 1, even were they to earn home-ice advantage heading in, the Canadiens have proven themselves capable of surprising to the upside. It gets to a point where it should no longer be seen as a surprise. While no one should necessarily count on them making it to Round 2, counting them out entirely would be a mistake on the part of analysts and their eventual opponents. As soon as next season, you have to believe no one will.
