The Montreal Canadiens will face off against the Buffalo Sabres, harkening back to the days of the old Adams Division, which is widely regarded as one of the toughest, most intense, and legendary divisions in NHL history. It was famous for fierce rivalries, physical play, and intense postseason battles that often featured the same teams facing off year after year.
The Sabres are considered to be the favourites in this series in the second round. The last time the two teams met in the playoffs was 1998, when Buffalo, backstopped by Dominik Hasek, swept the Canadiens. This season, the regular-season series between the Sabres and Canadiens was super tight. Both sides won two games and scored 13 goals, and each game was decided by two with a late empty-netter. This series looks like it will be another long, hard-fought matchup that comes down to which team executes their game plan best, and the Canadiens have a real opportunity to win it and move on to the Eastern Conference Final.
Winning and Keeping Possession
In a series where the margins are expected to be razor-thin and every mistake is magnified, the Canadiens hold an ace up their sleeve that could very well dictate the terms of engagement: absolute dominance in the faceoff circle. They aren’t just winning draws; they’re owning them to the tune of a 55.6 percent success rate, a mark that stands alone as the best among the eight teams still standing in these playoffs.
Compare that to a Buffalo squad languishing at 43.8 percent (second-worst in the remaining field), and you start to see where this battle might be won or lost. For Martin St. Louis, having the luxury of rolling out Jake Evans (62.9%), Phillip Danault (58.6%), and Nick Suzuki (56.3%) is like having three closers in the bullpen. They’re winning the puck battles that matter, ensuring Montreal starts with possession while Buffalo is left chasing, which is an important advantage considering how strong a possession team the Sabres can be.
In the postseason, time spent without the puck is time spent courting disaster, and right now, the Sabres don’t have a single regular pivot cracking the 49 percent mark to stop the bleeding. If the Canadiens keep tilting the ice from the first whistle of every shift, that disparity in the circle might just be the difference-maker that sends them to the final four.
Waking up the Canadiens’ Offence
It’s no secret that Jakub Dobes was the Canadiens’ MVP in the first round, allowing only four goals on 102 shots over the final three games against Tampa Bay. While his stellar play will need to continue, the bigger impact now is waking up the offence on the Canadiens’ top line of Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, especially at five on five (5v5). As a trio, there was only one 5v5 goal between them in the first round, and they will need significantly more against a very deep and skilled Sabres squad.
In Round 1, the top line was smothered by Tampa’s defensive specialists Anthony Cirelli and Brandon Hagel. The Sabres don’t boast the same level of defensive play up front, but they are not pushovers either. Montreal will need to adjust by getting back to basics.
Instead of trying to make cute, highlight-reel plays through the middle, all of the forwards, but mostly the top line, must focus on establishing the cycle game, winning board battles, and rolling the puck up high to tire out Buffalo’s defenders, who will need to chase to defend. This is how the Canadiens generated offence as the Lightning series wore on, and it will benefit them in the second round as well.
Establish the Transition Game
Buffalo plays an aggressive, high-risk, high-reward style where they commit players deep into the offensive zone to force turnovers. It is designed to impose pressure by cutting off time and space and using physicality, but it can be a double-edged sword for a team willing to counter it by playing with intensity at a high pace. That is how Montreal can find a way to exploit Buffalo’s aggressive forecheck. The Sabres also often activate defencemen like Rasmus Dahlin and Bowen Byram deep into the offensive zone.
Montreal’s defence is built with several defencemen known for their ability to quickly recover pucks and launch the transition to a group of speedy forwards. Montreal was the league’s best team in the first round at winning puck battles. By winning these battles in their own end, the Canadiens can exploit the space left behind by Buffalo’s aggressive forecheckers. By exploiting open ice with their speed, Montreal can counterattack quickly, especially the top line, which should be able to generate more odd-man rushes than they saw in the entire first round.
The Canadiens have proven they can match their opponent’s intensity, pace, and physicality. Their first-round series win against a more experienced Lightning squad has proven that.
Exploit Special Teams
Special teams played a major role in the four regular-season matchups. Buffalo went 3-for-11 on the power play (PP) and also got a shorthanded goal from Beck Malenstyn, who is expected to be a factor physically as well. Meanwhile, Montreal went 3-for-10. In the playoffs, the Canadiens’ PP started well with three goals in Game 1. While they did finish the seven-game series with the fourth-best PP in the playoffs to that point at 19.2%, they then went 1-for-17 in Games 3-7 after a hot start. The Sabres’ PP finished the first round at a woeful 4.2%, but it did improve as Round 1 went on, by generating some momentum that they exploited once they returned to 5v5 play.
Penalty killing (PK) is far more even as the Sabres rank sixth in the playoffs at 87.5% and Montreal 11th at 82.8%. The Sabres hold the edge in this area by using an active defensive system where their blueliners frequently jump into the play. This aggressiveness can lead to lapses in their defensive box formation when they are shorthanded. The Canadiens can counter by using Lane Hutson’s elite mobility at the point to force Buffalo’s aggressive killers out of position. They can then take advantage by getting shots on goal quickly, testing the goaltender and forcing rebounds they can exploit.
Leveraging the inexperience of some of the Sabres’ players, the Canadiens’ veteran-led penalty kill can pressure the puck aggressively. The key is maintaining a disciplined structure that forces the Sabres to play a patient, slow game on the power play, rather than the more aggressive one, which will open up more shooting lanes for players like Caufield and Slafkovsky.
Ultimately, the Canadiens’ chances of upsetting the favoured Sabres hinge on several factors, not just executing game plans, but having their best players step up and battle through their defensive coverage to add some offence. Dobes will also be needed to continue his brilliant play. Mostly, Montreal must maintain its intensity, physicality and high pace if they hope to exorcise the ghosts of 1998 and move on.
Upcoming Games
- Game 1 – Wednesday, May 6 @ Buffalo Sabres @ 7:00 pm ET
- Game 2 – Friday, May 8 @ Buffalo Sabres @ 7:00 pm ET
- Game 3 – Sunday, May 10 vs Buffalo Sabres TBD
- Game 4 – Tuesday, May 12 vs Buffalo Sabres TBD
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