Dollar store ping pong balls can have multimillion-dollar impacts when it comes to the NHL Draft Lottery.
On Tuesday, the league held the annual event, which determines the order that non-playoff teams will select players at the NHL Draft.
Despite finishing with the fourth-worst record this past season — which came with a 9.5 per cent chance of earning the coveted top selection — the Calgary Flames actually dropped and will select sixth overall.
The Toronto Maple Leafs stunned the hockey world and won the lottery, even though they had just an 8.5 per cent chance of doing so.
The odds are determined by the team’s record this season.
Fourteen ping pong balls are placed in a lottery machine, which allows for 1,001 combinations. Each team has four ping pong balls assigned to them, with different number combinations. The worse a team’s record, the more combinations they’re assigned, and the higher their likelihood of selecting first overall.
And the more likely they are to be able to select consensus top prospect Gavin McKenna out of Penn State University, formerly of the Medicine Hat Tigers.
What will the Calgary Flames’ approach be?
The Flames have had good fortune when choosing sixth overall. Matthew Tkachuk (2016) and Sean Monahan (2013) were drafted by the club in that spot, and both went on to stellar careers with the organization.
General manager Craig Conroy told reporters he was confident they’d again select a quality prospect.
“We’ve gotten really good players there in the past,” he said, adding he didn’t anticipate Tkachuk would fall to them at six.
Conroy said the team would not draft based off positional need, and instead take whomever they feel is the best player, regardless of where they play on the ice.
“If it’s forward, defence, goalie — whatever — we’re going to pick the best one.”
Since assuming the role in 2023, Conroy — a longtime Flames forward himself — has steadily built one of the best prospect pools in the game.
He’s traded veterans like Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, MacKenzie Weegar and Nazem Kadri to load up on draft picks and young players, some of whom have begun showing promise at the NHL level, including Zayne Parekh and Matvei Gridin.
According to Flames Nation managing editor Ryan Pike, the team simply needs more star-quality players to complement the talent they already have.
“They don’t have a game breaker,” he said. “They have guys that will be really good players for you, but they don’t necessarily have someone like a Johnny Gaudreau or Matthew Tkachuk, who can steal games for you.”
Economic impact (or lack thereof) of selecting first overall
First overall picks like Sidney Crosby, Connor McDavid and Connor Bedard can immediately suit up on the ice and sell tickets and jerseys off it, but their impact on their franchise’s bottom line is minimal — at least as individuals, according to experts.
Moshe Lander, a sports economist and lecturer at Concordia University, said sports franchises generally don’t make money. Their owners instead get value when they re-sell the team, given franchise values tend to increase over time.
According to Forbes magazine, as of December 2025, the Flames were valued at $1.9 billion. Their purchase price in 1980? $16 million.
“On a year-to-year basis, I don’t make a lot more money than what I spend, but the value of my home goes up every year,” Lander offered by way of comparison.
“So when I go to sell my home, I’m going to make a killing, but on a year-to-year basis, I’m not making a big profit.”
Where those stars make an economic impact is their ability to propel their teams to lengthy playoff runs, which is when owners cash in.
“If you manage to get an extra 10, 12, 14 playoff home games because of a deep run, that’s almost free profit,” Lander said.
“So what’s the value of a good draft or a good draft pick? It’s that you now increase the chances that you’re going to make the playoffs, which means there’s the chance, then, that you’re going to pocket all that revenue that comes. While it might not pay off in the first year, it might pay off somewhere down the line.”
Gauging the temperature of the fanbase
The upcoming draft comes as the organization begins to wind down its longtime home, the Saddledome, which is set for demolition after Scotia Place opens in 2027.
It also coincides with a significant change in direction for the franchise.
Instead of chasing a playoff spot, Conroy has leaned into the rebuild. The team has opened the door for long-term growth at the expense of short-term pain, on and off the ice. Calgary had one of the league’s worst records this season, and average game day attendance at the Saddledome was the lowest since the 2003-04 season (excluding seasons affected by COVID-19 restrictions).
Lander feels the team has to begin the next phase and win more games, or else it could lose another generation of fans.
Calgary’s last playoff appearance was in 2022, when they won their first round series over Dallas but then lost to the Oilers. Their last playoff run was during the 2003-04 season, when they lost in the Stanley Cup Final to Tampa Bay. And their lone time hoisting the trophy was back in 1989.
“The longer they go without seeing a winner, the easier it is to give up on that team,” Lander said.
“People love a winner, so if the Flames want to make sure they don’t hemorrhage their fanbase … the team better put together a winner soon. Whether that’s through the draft or trades or key signings, you’d better do it. Now there’s a deadline, because you really want to make sure you hit the ice with that winner when you open that new building.”
