Realistic Expectations for Blackhawks’ Spencer Knight in 2026-27 – The Hockey Writers – Chicago Blackhawks

Spencer Knight was the best player the Chicago Blackhawks had last season. After being acquired from the Florida Panthers for Seth Jones and a conditional 2027 first-round pick, Knight had his breakout season in 2025-26.

Before last season, Knight showed flashes with Florida and in the 15 games he played with the Blackhawks in 2024-25.

Although all the signs point towards Knight being the real deal, one of the trickiest things in the sport is trying to project what a young goalie can actually be after a strong season.

Knight has the raw talent to be a top goalie in the league, but what should Blackhawks fans expect heading into this season?

Last Season’s Numbers

When someone looks into projecting what a player will do during the season, you can find out a lot by digging into the numbers. All of Knight’s numbers were fantastic last season; he had a 11.19 goals saved above average (GSAA), 33.47 goals saved above expected (GSAx) and a .902 save percentage (SV%).

Even with those stellar numbers, the Blackhawks still allowed the sixth-most goals in the league last season at 275. The reality is the Blackhawks bled chances, ranking 27th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60), which limits how much of an impact that Knight can have.

The most staggering number to show how badly Knight got hung out to dry was finishing in the 92nd percentile for high-danger save percentage (HDSV%) but lower than the 50th percentile in high-danger goals against.

Knight succeeded in almost all areas, ranking above the league average in SV%, HDSV%, and long-range SV%, just trailing behind the league average in mid-range SV%.

Another notable stat was just the games played. Prior to last season, Knight’s career high was 38 games during the 2024-25 season, which was split between Florida and Chicago, but last season he topped that by 17 games.

So What Should We Expect?

Knight got absolutely no help defensively, and I don’t see that changing this season. The Blackhawks’ big moves in the offseason were very offensively focused, with Bowen Byram and Patrick Kane being brought in. When you add the number of young players who should have large roles, we’ll likely see many nights where Knight is going to have to keep the Blackhawks in the game.

After a great season, I don’t really see much reason for concern that Knight won’t be able to repeat a similar season. Sometimes I get concerned about a notable uptick in starts for a goalie and how it may affect them over the next season, but I think the workload is going to be more manageable for Knight.

Last season was so condensed because of the Olympics, and with the NHL getting back to a more regular schedule, I see that as a huge plus for him.

The one area I could see a bit of a regression is his HDSV%. I don’t think it would be fair to expect him to finish in the 92nd percentile just because of how astronomically high that number is. To put into perspective how difficult it is to repeat in the 90th percentile or higher for HDSV%, NHL EDGE only tracks this data back to the 2021-22 season. In that time, Connor Hellebuyck has never finished in the 90th percentile or higher in back-to-back seasons. Andrei Vasilevskiy has only done it once.

If Knight dips down to the mid-80s, his SV% is going to take a hit. If he drops closer to the league-average SV%, which is currently .896, I think that will likely still be a good season with how badly the Blackhawks bleed chances.

All in all, I still think Knight is going to be a shining light in a rough season for the Blackhawks. I could see him finishing in my top 10 goalies this season.