September is nearly here, which means it’s a good time to examine the road ahead for every playoff hopeful.
While the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves hold comfortable leads atop their divisions in the National League, the American League races are much tighter. The Astros hold a two-game lead on the Rangers in the AL West, the White Sox are up 3.5 games on the Guardians in the AL Central, and the Rays have a 4.5-game advantage on the Yankees in the AL East.
In the wild-card race, the Diamondbacks and Padres are currently jockeying for the final spot in the NL, with the Marlins a few games behind them. In the AL, meanwhile, four teams — the Guardians, Orioles, Blue Jays and Rangers — are separated by just two games for the final playoff spot.
At this time of year, strength of schedule can make all the difference in who gets in and who’s left out. So in this week’s Power Rankings, we focus on every team’s September schedule.
The Angels could end the season on a high note, finishing the year against the Nationals, Mariners, Twins, A’s and the Mariners again. If they steal one of those series against Seattle, that could end the Mariners’ hopes.
The Rockies finish the season with series against the Padres, Mariners, Diamondbacks and White Sox, all teams fighting for either a playoff spot or division title.
The A’s face the Mariners six more times, the Astros four times and the Rangers three times. With each of those teams vying for the division title, the A’s performance down the stretch could go a long way in shaping the AL West playoff picture.
There’s still a world in which the Giants finish behind the Rockies in the NL West (they’re four games ahead right now), which would be an especially ignominious way for manager Tony Vitello’s first season to end. Nine of the Giants’ final 15 games are against the Padres and Dodgers. As long as they don’t get trampled during that stretch, they should avoid finishing last.
The Mets have a chance to play spoiler in a host of playoff races, with matchups still ahead against the Rays, Yankees, Orioles, Phillies and Rangers before ending the year in Washington.
They just upset the Cubs at Wrigley Field, but there’s no time to rest. The Reds have the hardest strength of schedule remaining in the league: seven games against the Dodgers, six against the Brewers and three apiece against the Padres, Cubs, Braves and Blue Jays. Best of luck.
They’ve won 12 of their past 14 games, but unfortunately for Kansas City the first four months of the season still count. They have one of the tougher roads ahead among the AL Central clubs, so it’ll be interesting to see if they can keep this up in September and be a thorn in some contenders’ sides.
The Tigers have an easy road ahead — a stretch that includes six games against the Twins and three apiece against the Rockies, Blue Jays, Nationals and Pirates — but it also probably doesn’t matter after they dropped 12 of their past 15 games to fall further out of contention.
The Twins have dropped 17 of their past 26 games and yet, remarkably, still have a fighter’s chance of sneaking into a final wild-card spot. Each of their next 12 games come against AL Central competitors (six vs. Detroit, three apiece vs. White Sox and Guardians), so they’ll need to turn things around soon. They do get to face the Angels four times and Giants three times before season’s end.
The Mariners are struggling to score again, but they have the easiest road ahead of any team in baseball, including 14 games against the A’s and Angels and three against the Rockies. So, as bad as it has been, they should remain relevant in the AL West race until the end.
A surprise playoff run now looks out of reach, but if James Wood returns soon, the Nationals could still make life tough in September for the Dodgers, Padres and Phillies over the next couple of weeks. Washington then has a chance to end the season on a high note, finishing up against the Cardinals, Tigers and Mets.
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Nationals All-Star James Wood, who has been out with an oblique strain since early August, has started a minor-league rehab assignment. (Photo by JC Ruiz/Getty Images)
After dropping both of their series at the White Sox and Brewers last week, the Rangers could really use a turnaround this week against the A’s when they return home. After that, they face the Rays, Mariners, Diamondbacks and Red Sox before the September slate eases up at the end against the Blue Jays, Mets and Twins.
The Cardinals still have two series against the Giants as well as matchups against the Rockies and Nationals before season’s end, but they missed a huge opportunity to jump over .500 and back into the wild-card race when they lost series to the Orioles and Pirates this week.
The Pirates might be able to work their way back to .500 soon. They host the Giants and Angels this week after winning back-to-back series last week in San Diego and St. Louis. Still, it’s probably too little, too late. If they can somehow find their way back into the race late, though, they end the season with winnable matchups against the Royals, Cardinals and Tigers.
The O’s are just one game back of a wild-card spot, but FanGraphs gives them only a 21.2% chance to make the playoffs. The road ahead is not particularly easy. They have six more games against a Blue Jays team also vying for the final AL playoff spot, plus matchups against the Red Sox, Guardians, Brewers and Yankees. They’ll need to take care of business in Colorado and Queens in September.
The Blue Jays have a real shot here. They’re only 1.5 games out of a wild-card spot after sweeping the Mariners this weekend. And after starting this week in Cleveland, every other team the Jays face the rest of the way has a losing record.
The Marlins are trending in the wrong direction at the wrong time. If they somehow bounce back and find a way to capture the final wild-card spot — they’re 3.5 games back right now — they’ll have earned it. They still have to play the Dodgers, Padres, D-backs and Braves, plus six games against the Cubs.
Firing their general manager and then winning the division would maybe be the only appropriate way for the AL West race to end. The Astros had a big week in New York and are now in the driver’s seat in the division, but the road ahead is more treacherous for them than the division rivals they’re trying to hold off. Their next four series are against the White Sox, D-backs, Phillies and Rays, and they still see the Braves later on. The Royals are no longer a pushover, either.
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Yordan Alvarez and the Astros are in the driver’s seat in their division, and he still has a great shot at winning the triple crown in the American League. (Photo by Jack Gorman/Getty Images)
The Guardians had been taking care of business against the teams they should beat until dropping a series this weekend to the suddenly red-hot Royals. Luckily for Cleveland, the schedule doesn’t get much more challenging in September. The only teams over .500 the Guardians will see are the White Sox and Red Sox.
After dropping five of six games last week, the Padres wouldn’t make the playoffs if the season ended today. They’re, of course, still right there in the race, and they have one of the easiest schedules ahead among National League teams. But they need to take care of business against the Reds, Nationals, Giants and Rockies before they end the season with a huge week against the Dodgers and D-backs.
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Fernando Tatis Jr. and the Padres have struggled lately, but they have one of the NL’s easiest schedules in September. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The D-backs and Padres will be battling the rest of the way for the final wild-card spot. Arizona has the harder road ahead of the two teams, with matchups to come this week against the Phillies and Astros and another against the Yankees before season’s end. They’ll need to rack up wins against the Royals, Rangers, Marlins and Rockies before what should be a consequential and captivating final series of the year in San Diego.
The Red Sox are struggling to score again, but Roman Anthony and Trevor Story each had two hits in their return to action Sunday. A division title is highly unlikely — FanGraphs gives them a less than 1% chance of winning the AL East — but they’re in good shape to secure a wild-card spot. They have a winnable stretch ahead against the Mariners, Orioles, Angels, Royals and Rangers before a tough finish against the Rays, Guardians and Cubs.
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Roman Anthony had two hits on Sunday in his return to action from a finger injury that kept him out since early May. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The White Sox have a 3.5-game lead on the Guardians, which is important considering both teams have easy roads ahead. The White Sox still get to play the Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins, Pirates and Cardinals before season’s end. A three-game series at Cleveland starting Sept. 14 will be one to watch.
It would take a sizable collapse for the Phillies to miss the playoffs at this point, though winning the division is also a long shot. They’ll have a chance to chip into the Braves’ five-game lead, facing Atlanta seven times over a 10-day span starting this weekend. It’s a tough road ahead for the Phillies, who also have to face the D-backs, Brewers and Rays.
A division title is looking further out of reach, as the Cubs are now eight games back of the Brewers after dropping series to the D-backs and Reds last week. They still hold the top wild-card spot, but they have a difficult road ahead, starting with seven games against Milwaukee over the next 10 days. They do get to face the Pirates and Reds in September, but matchups against the Braves and Red Sox also await.
After winning the series this weekend against the Red Sox, the schedule eases up from here for the Yankees, who have a chance in early September to start putting pressure on the first-place Rays. The Yankees go to Anaheim and San Diego next before facing the Rockies, Mets, Twins and D-backs. If they’ve gained ground by then, it could set up a pivotal four-game series with Tampa Bay to start the final week of the regular season.
The Dodgers still aren’t playing great baseball, especially against good opponents, yet they have the biggest division lead in baseball (9.5 games) and one of the easiest September schedules in the sport. The only teams currently over .500 that they’ll see the rest of the way are the Marlins and Padres.
The Rays have built a cushion atop the AL East after sweeping the Padres over the weekend, but they’ll need to keep it going this week against the Mets and Rangers if they want to feel comfortable. They still have to face the Braves, Astros, Red Sox, Yankees and Phillies before season’s end.
Sweeping the Dodgers was important for a multitude of reasons. It gave the Braves the tiebreaker over L.A., moved them closer to securing a first-round bye, bought them more cushion ahead of the surging Phillies in the NL East race and provided some momentum entering a much more difficult stretch of baseball ahead. The Braves still have to play the Phillies seven times and the Rays, Cubs and Astros three times apiece.
It would take a colossal collapse for the Brewers to lose the division at this point. They have seven more games against the Cubs, but they also have six against the Reds, and four of the last five teams they face to end the year have a losing record. The Brewers could be headed toward their first ever 100-win season in addition to their fourth straight division title.
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