The last seven days saw the Edmonton Oilers shut out the Vancouver Canucks 6-0 on Saturday (Jan. 17), blank the St. Louis Blues 5-0 on Sunday (Jan. 18), lose 2-1 to the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday (Jan. 20) and get beat 6-2 by the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday (Jan. 22).
Related: 4 Takeaways From Oilers’ 6-2 Loss to Penguins
This latest stretch of the Oilers’ schedule pretty much serves as a microcosm of their season: Win a couple of games, lose a couple; defeat weaker opponents, fall to stronger teams. That’s been the routine for three and a half months now in Edmonton, where the Oilers still haven’t had a win streak longer than two games this season.
Oil Country keeps waiting for the two-time defending Western Conference champions to snap out of it and start playing like the Stanley Cup contenders that they’re supposed to be. It’s never been a matter of “if” the Oilers will get on track, just “when”.
But with the 2025-26 NHL season now nearly two-thirds complete, time is running out. The once unthinkable – missing the playoffs – is suddenly a scenario that’s not so far-fetched.
Oilers Sit Second in NHL’s Weakest Division
Through 52 games, Edmonton has a record of 25-19-8 for a total of 58 points. That currently has the Oilers sitting in second place in the Pacific Division, four points back of the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights. As it happens, Edmonton finished in the runner-up spot in the division each of the last two seasons before making a run to the Stanley Cup Final.
But this Oilers team is well off its pace of the last couple of seasons. In 2023-24, the Oilers had 67 points through 52 games; last season, they had 68 points at the 52-game mark. The only reason the Oilers currently occupy a divisional playoff position is that they’re in the weakest division in the league.
If the Oilers were in the Central Division, they’d be in fourth place, holding a wild-card playoff spot. If they were in the Metropolitan Division, they’d be in fourth place, one point out of postseason position. If they were in the Atlantic Division, they would be in sixth place, three points out of a playoff spot.
Oilers Are Feeling Heat in the Pacific Standings
While a lack of strong teams in the Pacific Division has thus far afforded Edmonton the opportunity to hover near the top of the standings, there are signs that things could get a lot more competitive over the last third of the season.
After winning their sixth consecutive game, 4-2 over the host Seattle Kraken on Friday (Jan. 23), the red-hot Anaheim Ducks are just one point back of the Oilers, with 57 points. The rapidly improving San Jose Sharks also won on Friday, defeating the visiting New York Rangers 3-1, to bring their season total to 55 points. Meanwhile, the Kraken and Los Angeles Kings – two veteran teams that could yet make a serious playoff push – both hover on the edge of the playoff picture, with 53 points apiece.
The wild-card race is starting to look tougher in the Western Conference, as the Central Division’s fourth-place team, the Utah Mammoth, have gone on an 8-0-1 surge to bring their season total to 56 points. As it currently stands, the Sharks hold the Western Conference’s second wild-card position, sitting one point back of Utah.
Oilers Must Play Better to Ensure Playoff Berth
With its current point percentage of .558, Edmonton is on pace to finish 2025-26 with 91 points over 82 games. History suggests that it will not be good enough to advance to the postseason dance.
In the last 12 full-length (82-game) NHL seasons, only six teams have made the playoffs with fewer than 92 points. No team has advanced to the playoffs in the Western Conference with less than 95 points since the conference grew to 16 teams with the addition of the expansion Kraken in 2021-22.
As far as the Oilers go, they haven’t made the playoffs with fewer than 92 points since 1999-00, when there were only 13 teams in the Western Conference.
So while Edmonton’s subpar point percentage is enough to occupy a playoff spot at this juncture of the season, that likely won’t prove true over the course of a full 82 games. Edmonton will probably need to get to 94 points to safely make the playoffs, if not hold on to its current place in the Pacific Division, and that means having a point percentage of .600 over the final 30 games.
Can the Oilers do that? Of course they can. After all, this is a team that features two of the greatest players on the planet in Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid, along with more than half a dozen other skaters who have been part of Edmonton’s back-to-back runs to the championship series.
But the Oilers are going to have to start playing better, for longer stretches. If they can’t, then maybe they aren’t anything more than a mediocre team, and don’t deserve the opportunity to defend their Western Conference crown.
