Last season was big for the Ottawa Senators. After seven tough years, the team finally made the playoffs and pushed the first-place Toronto Maple Leafs to Game 6 before bowing out. It was exactly what they set out to do, and with a dedicated core group and a perfect supporting cast, they made it happen.
But improving on that may be difficult in 2025-26, let alone repeating it. The Atlantic Division promises to be one of the toughest divisions in the NHL; not only is it home to the reigning Stanley Cup champions, but if the Florida Panthers falter, they could easily be replaced by the Tampa Bay Lightning or Maple Leafs. Even the Detroit Red Wings and Montreal Canadiens aren’t that far from pushing for a playoff spot, and some would argue they’re already there.
Did the Senators do enough to remain in the playoff hunt? With most rosters ready for the start of the season, it’s time to double-check on the rest of the division and figure out where the Senators stand.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Why Ottawa is Better: Mitch Marner’s departure from the Maple Leafs will have an impact. They got a valuable depth player in Nicholas Roy from the Vegas Golden Knights in return, but the Maple Leafs are still worse than they were in 2024-25. That’s great news for the Senators, who already had the Maple Leafs’ number throughout the regular season, beating them in all three meetings and outscoring them 9-3.
While no one emerged as a true ‘Leaf Killer,’ Tim Stutzle and Claude Giroux were especially motivated to beat their provincial rivals, and the Senators’ defence as a whole was more well-rounded and significantly younger. That’s only going to get more pronounced this season as Jake Sanderson takes the next step towards winning a Norris Trophy.
Why Toronto is Better: Even without Marner, the Maple Leafs are a dangerous team offensively. They boast one of the best goal-scorers in the NHL in Auston Matthews, a highly-skilled veteran in John Tavares, an up-and-coming power forward in Matthew Knies, and one of the best wingers in William Nylander. Anthony Stolarz also led the league last season with a .926 save percentage (SV%), and Joseph Woll was instrumental in the Maple Leafs’ success over Ottawa in the playoffs, where the Senators looked significantly outmatched.
Verdict: Toronto is still better, but the two teams are highly competitive, especially against each other. The Battle of Ontario will be alive and well in 2025-26.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Why Ottawa is Better: Although Andrei Vasilevskiy recorded an impressive .921 SV% and finished second in Vezina Trophy voting, his SV% against the Senators was .893. Tampa Bay still finished second in the Division with 47 wins, but, like the Maple Leafs, the Senators proved they had heart and determination and found a few weak points. If they can turn that into more wins, that will be a major sign that the team is growing.
Why Tampa Bay is Better: In their annual review, the NHL listed three wingers, one centre, and one defenceman from the Lightning among the top 20 players at each position, three of whom were in the top 10. The Senators had one player listed in each category, but none higher than Sanderson’s 13th place among defencemen. In their four meetings last season, each team won twice, but it wasn’t an even series. The only time the Senators held the Lightning to less than four goals was in their final meeting, which Ottawa won 2-1. At the other end of the ice, the Lightning were just as effective, allowing the fourth-fewest goals in the NHL.
Related: 3 Senators Prospects to Watch in 2025-26
Verdict: Despite the Lightning’s regression from Stanley Cup contender to just a playoff threat, they remain one of the toughest teams in the NHL. Ottawa might get there one day, but it won’t be in 2025-26.
Florida Panthers
Why Ottawa is Better: Somehow, the Senators were neck-and-neck with the reigning Stanley Cup champions last season, finishing two wins and nine goals apart in the standings. Ottawa also made more positive changes to its roster over the offseason.
Using the wins above replacement (WAR) stat, Ottawa lost negative 0.4 WAR, with Travis Hamonic and Matthew Highmore departing the team, and replaced them with Jordan Spence, Lars Eller, and Arthur Kaliyev, who had a 1.9 WAR last season and a net positive of 1.5. Florida, on the other hand, lost 2.2 WAR, mainly with the departure of Nate Schmidt, but gained a negative 1.2 WAR, thanks to Luke Kunin’s stint with the San Jose Sharks. That works out to the Panthers losing nearly 3.5 wins while the Senators gained 2.3. If that plays out in the standings, the Senators and Panthers could flip places.
Why Florida is Better: Although they were close in the standings, the Panthers still edged the Senators in nearly every category. The Panthers finished third in the Atlantic Division with 47 wins and were squarely in the middle with 252 goals scored, just ahead of the fourth-place Senators, who had 45 wins and 243 goals. The Panthers allowed 223 goals against; the Senators allowed 234.
Florida had one 30-goal scorer last season in Sam Reinhart and four more 20-goal scorers. Brady Tkachuk missed the 30-goal mark by one, but Ottawa still had five 20-goal scorers. Then there’s the playoffs, where Florida becomes a different beast, thanks to their cohort of Sam Bennett, Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, and Aleksander Barkov.
Verdict: Ottawa could realistically finish above the Panthers this season, but it’s tough to say that the Senators are the better team right now.
Montreal Canadiens
Why Ottawa is Better: The Canadiens are an up-and-coming team, but they still lack the depth and experience of the Senators. Nick Suzuki is emerging as a special talent, but behind him, the team lacks dynamism. Similarly, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky headline the wings, but the rest are either unproven or aging past their prime. The net is also a big question mark, as goalie Sam Montembault has never recorded a SV% above .903 during the regular season, and rookie backup Jakub Dobes – like Leevi Merilainen – had flashes of brilliance but only has 16 games under his belt. There’s also the debate between Sanderson and Lane Hutson, but as of now, Sanderson is the better player.
Why Montreal is Better: While the Senators thrived against tougher competition, they struggled against teams behind them in the standings, especially the Canadiens. In four meetings, Ottawa lost all but one and was outscored 11-17. Caufield and Josh Anderson were the biggest threats, each scoring three goals, but Montembault was also strong against Ottawa, posting a .926 and .960 SV% before stumbling later in the season with sub-.900 performances. Montreal was also one of the most improved teams this offseason, acquiring Noah Dobson and Sam Bolduc. Add in the arrival of Ivan Demidov, and the Canadiens could be a scary team in the fall.
Verdict: Montreal will continue to be a thorn in Ottawa’s side in 2025-26, but so far, that’s all they’ll be. The Canadiens don’t have enough to return to the postseason. However, the Senators need to watch them closely, because they’re coming up behind them fast.
Detroit Red Wings
Why Ottawa is Better: The Senators and Red Wings met four times last season, and while they held the Senators to just 10 goals – the lowest outside of the Maple Leafs – they struggled to adapt to the Senators’ physically demanding style. Only four Red Wings recorded 100 or more hits last season, while seven did so in Ottawa. The Senators do things by committee; everyone participates in hitting, blocking shots, and scoring goals. In Detroit, the bulk of the offence is handled by Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, and Dylan Larkin. Shut those players down, and you have a much easier path to winning.
Why Detroit is Better: John Gibson is a wild card entering the 2025-26 season. Playing behind a stagnating Anaheim Ducks roster, he still managed to put up decent numbers. In Detroit, he could return to the form that won him the Jennings and Art Ross Trophies in 2015-16. There are a lot of miles on his tires, and injuries have been a significant concern lately, but stranger things have happened, especially when talking about goalies.
Raymond and Moritz Seider have shown flashes of higher gears, which could prove to be difficult to handle, and Marco Kasper, Simon Edvinsson, Axel Sandin Pellikka, and Sebastian Cossa all have first-line potential. That’s a lot of talent waiting in the wings.
Verdict: Detroit is on the way up and making progress towards a playoff spot. But Ottawa doesn’t have to worry as much about the Red Wings right now, as they still have a few things to figure out before they’re a truly competitive team.
Buffalo Sabres
Why Ottawa is Better: The Sabres will regret moving JJ Peterka, if they don’t already. The young German finished third on the team in goals and second in points last season, and while there were some defensive concerns, not having him on their top line will make Buffalo worse. Buffalo already lacked depth, and while they have a lot of young talent, they don’t have enough NHL-ready players to make their team competitive. There’s also the issue of goaltending, where Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is still trying to find his rhythm as an NHL starter.
Why Buffalo is Better: Ottawa couldn’t beat the Sabres last season, losing all four matchups by a score of 17-5. As mentioned, the Senators struggle against weaker teams, which was no more apparent than when they faced Buffalo. They might have underestimated the Sabres, but they have a lot of talent. Tage Thompson has remained a reliable 70-point player, Jason Zucker and Ryan McLeod are valuable secondary scorers, and youngsters Zach Benson and Jiri Kulich could be breakout stars. The Senators also know what Josh Norris can be when healthy, which would be unfortunate to see develop south of the border.
Verdict: Despite last season’s record, Buffalo remains a bottom-feeder in the Atlantic. They are getting better, though, so the Senators need to be careful.
Boston Bruins
Why Ottawa is Better: Aside from David Pastrnak, the Boston Bruins don’t have many players who can regularly put the puck in the net. While Pastrnak had 106 points last season, ranked third in the NHL, the Bruins’ next-highest scorer was Morgan Geekie, who had just 57 points. The next – Pavel Zacha, who had 10 fewer points than Geekie. Tanner Jeannot, Viktor Arvidsson, and Matej Blumel could help with their production, but it’s no match for the Senators’ top players.
It’s the same on defence, where they have one dominant defender in Charlie McAvoy, followed by several average depth pieces, and, in goal, the Bruins are relying on Jeremy Swayman and Joonas Korpisalo, which didn’t work for Ottawa in 2023-24 and likely won’t for Boston in 2025-26.
Why Boston is Better: It didn’t help that Hampus Lindholm was injured most of last season, and his return could give Boston a significant boost. Swayman also had an off year last season, and like Gibson, he could be a rebound season away from recapturing his Jennings-Trophy form. Mason Lohrei is also developing nicely on the blue line, which gives the team some hope that he’ll break out sooner than later.
Verdict: The Senators outmatch the Bruins in every area, and it’s not even much of a debate aside from a couple of players. Even in a perfect world, Boston is set up to once again finish last in the Atlantic.
Where the Senators Sit
The Senators are not in a position to challenge for the top of the Atlantic Division yet, but their biggest competition arguably isn’t the Panthers, Lightning, or even the Maple Leafs. Those three teams are in win-now modes, with their Stanley Cup windows beginning to close.
Instead, the Senators are competing with the Canadiens and, to a lesser extent, the Red Wings for the future of the Division. Ottawa has made continual growth and smart additions since Michael Andlauer took over, and that well-rounded approach is starting to pay dividends. Ottawa is in a fantastic position this season to not only keep its playoff spot but also win a playoff round. All they have to do is stay the course and do what they’re good at – play with heart.
