Just a couple of months ago, the conversation around Easton Cowan was pretty firm. Yes, he’s a good prospect, but “he’ll need some time with the Toronto Marlies.” Even within the Toronto Maple Leafs organization, no one wanted to rush him. And honestly, there didn’t seem much reason to.
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Cowan was coming off a big Junior season, sure, but the jump from the Ontario Hockey League (OHL) London Knights to the NHL is usually a shock to the system. Most players hit that wall fast. Some time in the American Hockey League (AHL) with the Marlies would do him just fine.
Cowan Seemed to Struggle When He First Hit NHL Ice
Cowan didn’t grab the headlines right from the start. Or at least he didn’t hit it the way anyone expected. He struggled early and looked like he was trying to be perfect instead of just playing. You could see him thinking his way through every shift. But the moment he relaxed and played the game that got him there? The whole picture changed.
Now he’s in the lineup every night, making the kinds of plays you want to watch again. Although he’s made his share of rookie mistakes, he’s also firing on all cylinders. If you didn’t know he was 20, you’d swear he’d already survived a couple of playoff rounds.
That sets us up with a fun question: What does a realistic best-case season look like for Cowan? Based on the eye test, the numbers, and the trust head coach Craig Berube is already showing in him, here are three predictions that feel less bold every time he touches the puck.
Prediction 1. Cowan Stays in the Top Six and Doesn’t Look Out of Place
If we’re being honest, this wasn’t even on the table in September. Cowan was supposed to fight for a job, get a taste of the NHL, and then slide down to the Marlies to keep developing. Now? The only question is who he plays with. Or, who gets to play with him?
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No matter what line he lands on, Cowan drives play. The high-danger numbers are eye-opening: he’s second on the team in raw chances at even strength and first when you look at percentages. That means when he’s on the ice, the Maple Leafs generate the lion’s share of the dangerous looks. That’s not normal for a rookie. That’s the calling card of a top-six winger in the making.
Give Berube credit; he saw it quickly. The trust is growing, shift by shift. Berube is giving him hard minutes. Offensive-zone starts and late-game shifts. No sheltering him against tougher opposition. That doesn’t happen unless a coach believes he can help the team win.
Prediction 2. Cowan Finishes With 45 Points and Earns Them
Right now, Cowan is tracking in the high 30s. But that’s before you factor in the growth curve he’s already riding. His expected-goals numbers paint a clear picture: Cowan is already one of the most efficient even-strength forwards on the roster. Only two forwards on the team have better expected-goals differentials: John Tavares and Auston Matthews.
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Combine that with his power-play bump—he quietly holds the best expected-goals percentage of any Maple Leafs forward on the man advantage—and suddenly the idea of a 40-to-45-point season isn’t generous. It’s realistic.
Nothing about his offence feels inflated or lucky. He arrives early at loose pucks. He slips into seams unnoticed. He forces turnovers that shouldn’t happen. These are repeatable skills. And when a rookie can repeat good habits, points tend to rise.
Prediction 3. Cowan Becomes the Rookie the Maple Leafs Haven’t Had in a Long Time
Here’s the thing that keeps jumping out: other players play better when they’re on his line. That’s usually a “later-career” quality, not one you expect from someone who still has to remind waiters he’s old enough to order a drink.
But Cowan brings pace and purpose. He never cheats for offence. He bounces back after mistakes instead of shrinking from them. He has that calm urgency—the kind you see in players who quietly take over teams. Call it leadership if you want. Maybe that’s a big word for now. But you can see the outline of something bigger forming.
If Matthew Knies is covering some of Mitch Marner’s lost production, then who covers Knies? The early answer might be the rookie no one expected: Easton Cowan.
Final Thought About Easton Cowan’s Season
For a player who was supposed to spend most of the season in the AHL, Cowan has flipped the script. He’s not just holding on—he’s pushing upward. And unless the wheels fall off (and there’s no sign of that happening), the Maple Leafs may have stumbled into something they haven’t had since Knies burst onto the postseason in 2023.
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Cowan is a young forward exceeding expectations, lifting others, and forcing the organization to rethink his ceiling in real time. He’s one of the bright spots in the Maple Leafs’ season, no matter what else happens.
