With just three games remaining in the 2025-26 season, the Calgary Flames find themselves well outside the playoff picture with a 32-38-9 record for just 73 points. That has them 30th among all 32 organizations in league standings, proving how much room there is for improvement with this team.
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That said, finishing near the bottom of the standings wasn’t unexpected, as many felt the Flames would be in the draft lottery conversation before the 2025-26 season got underway. Many of their fans were even hoping for that exact situation to happen in order to land Gavin McKenna with the first-overall pick at the upcoming draft.
Though McKenna hasn’t been the consensus first-overall selection for the entirety of the season, most believe his name will be called first this June. Flames fans who have been sick and tired of this team stuck in mediocrity have been praying to see him land in Calgary. Unfortunately, despite the fact that they arguably need him more than any other team in the league, the odds of them getting him aren’t all that great.
The Flames are three points ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks, who have just two games remaining this season. Odds are, they will finish 30th at the absolute lowest, while still having a chance at jumping ahead of the 29th-placed New York Rangers. The Vancouver Canucks, meanwhile, are guaranteed to finish 32nd having amassed only 73 points.
Flames Need a McKenna-Like Talent
The reason for the Flames’ struggles in recent years is that they don’t have much offensive talent on their roster. Young assets such as Matt Coronato and Matvei Gridin are good pieces up front, though neither feel likely to develop into a true gamebreaker that this team hasn’t possessed in several years.
The proof is in the pudding, as the Flames have scored the least goals of all NHL teams this season with 200. That translates to a goals per game pace of just 2.53, which simply isn’t enough to be a playoff-calibre team. It shows when looking at the Flames’ stats, too, as Matt Coronato is leading the way in scoring with only 43 points.
Overall, the Flames aren’t as bad a team as the standings may indicate. As was the case in 2024-25, they are more often than not in games until the very end, and make life difficult on opposing teams. Unfortunately, they lack the point producers to come up with timely goals to help lead them to victory.
Landing McKenna would go a long way in changing that. While there would be an adjustment period when first transitioning to the NHL, there is a serious argument to be made that he may already be the most offensively gifted player on this Flames roster. The organization has done a great job at adding prospects under general manager (GM) Craig Conroy, but they need a truly big piece to get things moving in the right direction. McKenna offers just that.
Should the Flames finish the season in 30th, they would have an 11.5 per cent chance of landing the first-overall pick. Their strongest odds are to land the fourth-overall selection at 39.7 per cent. Picking at fourth, while great for many teams, would be a disaster of sorts for the Flames.
As good as this draft is supposed to be, it’s clear that McKenna is in a class of his own. With 51 points in just 35 games for Penn State this season, he appears more than ready to step into the NHL and make an immediate impact. That impact would best be served with the Flames, as they would be getting the offensive piece they lack, while McKenna would be joining an organization that does appear to have a solid future ahead.
Flames Will Be Back to Square One Without McKenna
Again, it’s important to be clear that if the Flames were to perhaps land the third or even fourth-overall pick, they would still be adding a very intriguing prospect. The issue is that the player available at that spot wouldn’t have the offensive upside of McKenna, which is undoubtedly the biggest need for the organization at this time.
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If the Flames don’t land McKenna, they will presumably head into the 2026-27 season without a top-tier offensive weapon once again. That would likely lead to more struggles in the wins-losses column, and could very well have them back in the same position they find themselves in right now. Though the odds may not be in their favour, they desperately need to land the first-overall pick so that this 2025-26 season isn’t a complete waste.
