It’s been nearly 12 months since the Tampa Bay Lightning acquired the rights to forward Jake Guentzel and signed him to a seven-year contract. His rights were acquired from the Carolina Hurricanes on June 30, 2024, in exchange for a third-round pick. The contract has an average annual value (AAV) of $9 million.
It faced scrutiny, especially with what it coincided with. He was in, and the longtime face of the franchise, Steven Stamkos, was out.
If he had come in and Stamkos stuck around, the move would have been welcomed with open arms across the fan base. But that’s not how it went down. Stamkos signed with the Nashville Predators the same day. Guentzel had already proven he was a high-caliber player between his years with the Pittsburgh Penguins and his rental stint in Carolina. However, he was now seen as the replacement of a future Hall of Famer. He was receiving more money than Stamkos had ever received during any season of his career.
Coming out of the gate playing at a high level was crucial for Guentzel, and he did just that. As we approach the one-year mark, let’s look back on a move that proved to be a genius acquisition.
Fitting Into the Lightning System Like a Hockey Glove
Just a heads-up going into this: There are going to be some comparisons to Stamkos’ last season. Because Guentzel’s acquisition and Stamkos’ departure are so intertwined, it has to be done.
To keep it simple, Guentzel had one of the best seasons of his career. In 80 games, he had a career-high 41 goals and tallied 39 assists for 80 points on the season. It’s the second time in his career that he reached the 80-point mark. His 41 goals were good enough for second on the team behind Brayden Point, and his 80 points placed him fourth.
He worked perfectly on a top line that consisted of Point at center and Nikita Kucherov at right wing. He did a solid job keeping up with Kucherov in setting up Point. He recorded the primary assist on nine of Point’s goals during the 2024-25 season (Kucherov recorded 19). He recorded the secondary assist four times when Kucherov had the primary assist. For comparison, Stamkos recorded the primary assist on three of Point’s goals in 2023-24, with three more secondary assists when Kucherov had the primary assist.
Related: 5 Lightning Named to Preliminary Rosters for the 2026 Winter Olympics
He assisted on nine of Kucherov’s goals (three primary and six secondary). While Kucherov was still doing the heavy work across two lines last season, Guentzel had no trouble doing his part. For comparison, Stamkos recorded just four primary assists on Kucherov goals in his final season with the Lightning.
Guentzel and Stamkos are two different types of players. Stamkos is expected to hover around the circle and wait for the right shot more than Guentzel is. However, Guentzel brought value in other ways while still scoring the 40 goals we’d expect from the former Lightning great.
Come playoff time, Guentzel brought the same production that the Lightning got from Stamkos the season prior. In the loss in five games to the Florida Panthers in the first round, he recorded three goals and three assists for six points. Stamkos had five goals and one assist for six points in the previous season’s playoff matchup. The point remains the same. The two contributed in different ways but still got on the scoresheet the same number of times. Like Stamkos, Guentzel was one of the few Lightning players who put up a fight against a tough Panthers team.
This is also an opportune time to bring up that Stamkos did not play any playoff games in 2025. The Predators finished third-to-last in the Western Conference. The Lightning and their fans had to feel somewhat better about the moves after that.
Other Important Factors Going Forward
The Lightning are still going to get some prime years out of Guentzel. He’s entering his age-31 season. He’s at an age where the top players in hockey are still expected to keep it going for some time. Even if the Lightning likely won’t get the expected production from him for all seven seasons, it’s worth the investment to get it for three to four years while he’s still at the top of his game.
The reality is that if they had stuck with Stamkos, even if he hypothetically performed better staying in Tampa Bay in an alternate timeline, there is way less racetrack to work with. Switching to Guentzel helped extend the window for potentially winning another Stanley Cup. There’s no guarantee they ever get back to the top of the mountain, but the odds improved.
