Misery loves company, and so perhaps the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers can offer mutual support for their shared inability to stand in the way of the now back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. After both Canadian clubs fell to the Panthers this postseason, the question is what happens now and where do they stand moving forward.
On the surface, it would certainly seem like Edmonton is in the more-enviable position among the two also-rans. Not only did the Oilers make it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final (for the second-straight year) compared to another second round disappointment by the Maple Leafs, but their top pending unrestricted free agents are Trent Frederic and Corey Perry, in comparison to a Toronto team that needs new contracts for Mitch Marner and John Tavares. Heck, every betting site around has given Edmonton far better Cup odds heading into next season than Toronto.
Not so fast, however. While the Oilers have plenty of reason for encouragement after being one of the last two teams standing and will benefit from having a healthy Zach Hyman back next season, the Cup Final against the Panthers exposed some fundamental flaws that need to be addressed and seemed to reveal a group that was further away in their Cup pursuit than they were a year prior.
Now, as Florida celebrates (perhaps a little too enthusiastically) their second-consecutive Cup triumph and the NHL sets its focus on the offseason, which of the Maple Leafs and Oilers are in the better position to chase the Cup in 2025-26?
Holes in the Lineup to Address
Look, no one around the league stands to have as big a pair of skates to fill as Toronto does if they lose Marner in free agency. He and Tavares represent two of their most-significant forwards and offensive threats, even if holding onto Auston Matthews, William Nylander and restricted free agent (RFA) Matthew Knies will still give them plenty of firepower. Regardless of who replaces Marner, the departure of a 100-point scorer will certainly leave a hole to be filled.
(Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images)
Of course, the Oilers have their share of work to do too. They have their own free agents to sign, as there have been rumours of an eight-year contract extension with Frederic and Perry reportedly wants to be back in Edmonton. Beyond that, the big looming question centers around the club’s goaltending, where the tandem of Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard failed to provide sufficient support between the pipes. In what appears to be a thin goaltending market, general manager Stan Bowman may need to get creative.
Both teams will need to address lineup depth as the offseason, although that may be a more onerous task for the Oilers. The Maple Leafs are poised to return a largely in tact blue line and a mostly-filled forward corps (especially if Marner and Tavares re-sign). Edmonton, meanwhile, appears set in the upper crust of their forward lines, but they didn’t get much out of depth pieces like Jeff Skinner, Mattias Janmark, Adam Henrique, Viktor Arvidsson and Kasperi Kapanen and will probably need to reset. The salary cap will be a challenge for both clubs, with both needing money set aside for big RFA signings (Knies and Evan Bouchard).
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Matching Up Against Florida
Much to the chagrin of the rest of the league, it doesn’t appear that the Panthers are going anywhere after two-straight Cup wins and appearances in three-consecutive Finals, especially if Sam Bennett remains in the Sunshine State. So, which of the Maple Leafs and Oilers are best equipped to vanquish their formidable foe?
Maple Leafs fans probably don’t want to hear it, but the fact that Toronto took Florida to a full seven games speaks to how they really weren’t that far off from toppling the league’s top team. In fact, you could argue that had the Maple Leafs managed to hold onto their two-goal lead in Game 3 after already being up 2-0 in the series, things could look very different today. Toronto provided the best physical response to the tough Panthers and demonstrated their grit with a feisty 2-0 road win in Game 6 (although the less said about Games 5 and 7, the better).
Much like the Maple Leafs, the Oilers seemed to fall victim to Florida’s tendency to wear opponents down. On one hand, they pushed three of the first four games to overtime and went back to Edmonton for Game 5 with the series knotted up 2-2. The non-overtime games, however, were never all that close, as they were outscored 16-4 over Games 3, 5 and 6. While plenty was made about Florida’s ability to smother Toronto’s top stars (Marner and Matthews combined for just two goals and seven assists in the series), the Oilers’ superstar tandem of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were held off the scoresheet entirely in Game 6.
Pushing the series to one extra game doesn’t immediately mean that the Maple Leafs gave the Panthers more of a run for their money. However, Toronto went from losing in five games during the 2023 postseason to pushing Florida to seven two years later, while Edmonton regressed from what was a one-goal differential in Game 7 a year ago to getting blown out in Game 6 this year. The teams’ responses to facing a 3-2 hole heading into Game 6 in Florida could not have been more different.
Long-term Outlook
Admittedly, it’s hard to venture any insight into a long-term outlook ahead of an offseason that could be transformational for the two clubs, particularly the Maple Leafs. And yet, even if Toronto’s big-name free agents leave, there remains a foundational core of Matthews, Nylander, Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe set to stay in place long-term. They head into next season with a fairly complete blue line, two trusted goaltending options, and some talent up front, albeit with some work to be done.
While Edmonton’s issues to address are less imminent, they are still undeniably looming. And none are larger than the future of McDavid, who is headed into the final season of his current contract. The 28-year-old didn’t exactly offer any assurances of remaining with the Oilers past 2025-26 at his end-of-season press conference, saying, “I still need to do what’s best for me and my family.” For Toronto, a future as a Cup contender without Marner could prove difficult but is ultimately possible. Such a future in Edmonton without McDavid may not be.
Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-Imagn Images
It remains to be seen what a reset Maple Leafs lineup looks like come opening night, but there still exists an anticipation that they will stand as a serious contender in the Eastern Conference regardless of how things shake out. In Edmonton, 2025-26 might now carry the added significance of potentially being the organization’s final season of serious contention with the NHL’s best player leading the way.
So why would a back-to-back Stanley Cup finalist that boasts arguably the league’s best two players be at all envious of a franchise whose Cup drought is approaching 60 years and appears poised to lose their top scorer? For one thing, Edmonton would kill for an offseason goaltending outcome like the Maple Leafs had with Anthony Stolarz last summer. Plus, for as hard a player as Marner is to replace, the Oilers now have to face the painful possibility of a future without McDavid.
