The Toronto Maple Leafs weren’t able to get past the second round this season, being eliminated in seven games by the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Florida Panthers. They had a solid series and could come back next season even stronger, but they may be forced to find replacements for Mitchell Marner and John Tavares, who might both be heading to the open market this summer. According to a recent article from Sportsnet, Nikolaj Ehlers could be a potential Marner replacement if he doesn’t return to the Winnipeg Jets.
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Ehlers, who is 29 years old, scored 24 goals and added 39 assists for 63 points through 69 games this season. Throughout his career, he has scored 225 goals and added 295 assists for 520 points through 674 games which comes out to a 0.77 points-per-game average. He has established himself as a strong offensive contributor who has the ability to single-handedly elevate a team’s production, and could command a huge price tag on his next contract.
Marner, who is 28 years old, scored 27 goals and added 75 assists for 102 points through 81 games this season. While his production is a bit better than what Ehlers provided this season, they have similar styles that could make the Maple Leafs consider spending big to make sure they don’t lose out on that type of scoring. Throughout Marner’s career, he has scored 221 goals and added 520 assists for 741 points through 657 games which comes out to a 1.13 points-per-game average.
Realistically, plenty of contending teams will have interest in signing Ehlers if he hits the open market this summer. He will likely look for a seven-year deal worth around $9 million annually, which is a bit steep, but it’s less than what the Maple Leafs would have paid Marner, who is rumoured to be looking for around $14 million annually on his next contract.
Where Would Ehlers Fit With the Maple Leafs?
If Ehlers is the Marner replacement, he steps right onto the first line. Maybe the team plays Ehlers on his off-wing to keep Matthew Knies on the first line with him and Auston Matthews, or maybe they move Knies down to the second line and have a first line of Knies, Matthews, and William Nylander. Either way, Ehlers steps in as a top-six forward and likely goes right on their first power play unit. He has an incredible shot, can set up plays for his teammates with his offensive IQ, and despite some minor injury issues, is very consistent.
The Maple Leafs losing both Marner and Tavares could be viewed as catastrophic if they’re unable to bring in solid replacements who are just as valuable as those two. Signing Ehlers solves one issue and still leaves them with enough cap space to continue trying to spend big and fill out their roster even more. There are some concerns about Ehlers’ defensive consistency, but his offensive production outweighs whatever defensive blunders he makes.
Take a look at his wins above replacement (WAR) player card from 2021-2024 here:
Everything looks good, except for his defensive play at even strength, and he doesn’t play on the penalty kill. However, as mentioned, his offensive game makes up for what might be a liability in his own end. At the end of the day, Ehlers may not quite be the player that Marner is at both ends of the ice, but he is a more affordable option and could make up for some of the lost scoring if he chooses to join a huge market in Toronto.
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