NFL Confidential: Scouts, Execs Not Too High on QBs in 2026 NFL Draft

The calendar just turned to December. But for a handful of NFL fanbases, draft season has already arrived. 

However, unlike many other NFL Drafts, there isn’t a clear and consensus No. 1 overall prospect as the college football season winds down. That might be a problem for the number of teams that’ll need some quarterback help this offseason, as they debate whether to use a first-round pick on a quarterback in April or kick the can down another year. But with conference championship weekend here and the College Football Playoff on the horizon, there’s still time for a quarterback to rise up and deem themselves as the No. 1 prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft. 

Which quarterback currently sits as the most likely to be picked first next April? Who could rise up draft boards? How do people around the NFL feel about the quarterbacks that could be selected in the 2026 draft?

FOX Sports NFL reporters Ralph Vacchiano and Eric D. Williams surveyed the league and got the answers to those questions. 

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College scout: QBs in ‘26 draft class were “overhyped” from the start

Ralph Vacchiano: There was a time last spring when NFL teams (and fans) looked ahead to the 2026 draft and saw the potential for quarterback gold. Even a few teams seemed to punt on the shallow Class of 2025 in the hopes of better options in a deeper class one year later.

But now that appears to have been a losing bet. A quarterback class that was once thought to include maybe a half-dozen potential first-rounders might only end up with two or three. Former sure things like Arch Manning (Texas), Garrett Nussmeier (LSU), LaNorris Sellers (South Carolina), Carson Beck (Miami), Drew Allar (Penn State) and Cade Klubnick (Clemson) all seem to have faded due to injuries, disappointing performances or, in some cases, both.

And yes, some quarterbacks have risen to take their places. But not many. And the hype just isn’t the same.

“I think this quarterback class was overhyped by the media from the start, and I think a lot of it had to do with Arch Manning,” a college scout for an NFC team recently told me. “He’s a huge name, so it’s understandable, but I think most of us were pretty sure he wasn’t coming out this year. And the rest of the class was promising, but there were a lot of questions.

“It was never the slam-dunk, five-deep, franchise class that it was made out to be.”

Drew Allar put up disappointing numbers before suffering a season-ending ankle injury in October. (Photo by Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images)

Maybe that’s true. It certainly wasn’t expected to match the Class of 2024 that saw six quarterbacks in the Top 12 picks, including the top three (Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye). But it was definitely expected to be far superior to the Class of 2025, which included only Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart as first-rounders.

The Class of 2026 probably will end up with at least two first-round quarterbacks, given the number of teams that desperately need one, but the quality and the potential of the prospects aren’t very clear.

“I’m not sure I see a franchise quarterback in this group,” an NFL scouting director told me. “Maybe one, but even that could be a stretch. It’s nothing like the class of 2024 when it was easy to see four or five. I’m not even sure it’s as good as last year’s group yet.”

Added the NFC scout: “I’m glad my team doesn’t need one this year, because I don’t think I could find one.”

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Scouts, execs: There might be only 1 QB worth using a top-10 pick on in 2026

Vacchiano: So, who’s No. 1, at least among the quarterbacks in the 2026 class?

It is an important question because several teams currently expected to pick near the top of the draft appear to desperately need a new quarterback. The Las Vegas Raiders (currently picking 4th), Cleveland Browns (5th), New York Jets (7th) and Arizona Cardinals (8th) all seem to fall into that group.

So, is there anyone that a quarterback-needy team should consider with a top-10 pick?

I asked three scouts and two NFL executives that question, and the current consensus is that there’s probably only one, maybe two, worthy of that high of a selection. All five mentioned Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza as a likely top-10 pick. Two added Oregon’s Dante Moore.

“He’s certainly got the size you want (6-5, 225). He’s smart and makes most of the right reads. He seems steady and calm in the pocket and poised under pressure,” a college scout for an AFC team told me. “I’d put him in the good, but not great category, but he‘s probably the best that will come out. I just don’t get a ‘star’ feel from him, but I’m intrigued enough where I’d consider him.”

Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza might be the frontrunner to be the first quarterback selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. (Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Moore, meanwhile, might need some time to develop, but is really talented, a college scout for an NFC team told me. 

“If I were him, I’d go back to school for a year. He’s still really young (20), but he’s got terrific dual-threat skills,” a college scout for an NFC team told me. “I think with a little more development, he could be a star. But there‘s enough talent there where if my team needed a quarterback this year, I‘d grab him. I‘d just want him to sit behind a veteran for a year.”

One scout said he could see a scenario where South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers goes in the first round, maybe even as a top 10 pick in the right situation, too. But he conceded that picking Sellers that high could be “a bit out of desperation.”

Sellers was one of the reasons why this quarterback class was so overhyped, the scout said, but he ended up having a very disappointing year in which his accuracy issues didn’t improve.

“If you’ve been scouting him for a while, though, I could see where someone could be sold on his potential,” the scout told me. “His performance is a bit alarming. But a team that doesn’t have a franchise quarterback might feel pressured to take the risk.”

“If he doesn’t stay in school, or maybe transfer — which might be best for him,” added an NFL executive, “I bet someone falls in love with him at the combine.”

How one draft expert ranks the 2026 QBs

Eric D. Williams: The consensus from scouts and league executives I spoke with is that the 2026 quarterback draft class is not as deep as in 2024, when six quarterbacks went in the first 12 picks, and more like the QB class from 2025.

FOX Sports NFL Draft analyst Rob Rang had three quarterbacks selected in the first round of his latest mock draft, with Mendoza, Beck and Nussmeier all being top-24 picks.

Alabama’s Ty Simpson has gained some buzz as a potential first-round pick. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

But more than a month has gone by since Rang’s last mock draft. So, how does Rang view the quarterback class now? Here’s how Rang has the quarterbacks ranked at this point in the draft evaluation, with a little over four months until draft night.

1. Dante Moore, Oregon: First round
2. Ty Simpson, Alabama: First round
3. Fernando Mendoza, Indiana: First round
4. Arch Manning, Texas: First round
5. Carson Beck, Miami: Second round
6. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU: Second/Third round
7. LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina: Second/Third round

“It is difficult to judge it fairly until we know who will be included in it,” Rang said about the upcoming QB draft class. “The underclassmen are legitimately talented but are severely lacking in starting experience and — in the case of Moore and Simpson — are surrounded by a lot of talent, complicating their projection to the pros.

“Simply put, there is not a slam-dunk franchise quarterback in this class. Even the most gifted are likely to struggle if asked to play immediately in the NFL. I envision the earliest picks performing similarly as Cam Ward and Jaxson Dart so far in 2025 — providing enough flash plays to excite the fan base — but ultimately failing to generate many wins as a rookie.”

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Scout: Dante Moore, Arch Manning should wait to declare, but a few other QBs are NFL-ready 

Williams: A longtime NFL national college scout intimately familiar with the quarterback evaluation process agreed with Rang’s assessment — there is not a can’t-miss prospect this year.

“It’s subpar for top-ranked QBs,” the scout told me. “Some don’t have the necessary college career snaps. Arch needs to play and not just be anointed.”

Oregon’s Dante Moore has also received some draft love, but should he wait aonther year to declare? (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

The scout went on to say players like Oregon’s Moore and Manning should consider staying in school to get more reps and seasoning. While players like Mendoza and Simpson have shown they are ready to make the leap to the NFL.

“I don’t think Moore comes out since he’d be leaving a lot of money on the table at school and a chance to further develop as a younger prospect,” the scout told me. “He has all the traits, but just needs time to become a better, more consistent processor.

“The NFL doesn’t really develop QBs anymore, and you can’t grow unless you play. He can get paid and develop in college. Mendoza is very ready. Simpson will be very much in the conversation on Day 1 and Day 2. Beck is ready. So is Nussmeier, but I think teams will want to think about getting them at lower picks than in Round 1 and 2 once we get through the entire process. [Drew] Allar would be a futures QB.”   

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

Eric D. Williams has reported on the NFL for more than a decade, covering the Los Angeles Rams for Sports Illustrated, the Los Angeles Chargers for ESPN and the Seattle Seahawks for the Tacoma News Tribune. Follow him on X at @eric_d_williams.

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