As the Chicago Blackhawks look to climb out of the basement of the NHL standings in 2025-26, their franchise superstar in Connor Bedard hopes to take a step forward in his professional development.
In his first two professional seasons, Bedard has shown flashes of an elite hockey player. The 2023 first-overall pick has 45 goals and 83 assists for 128 points through his first 150 career NHL games, scoring at approximately a 70-point pace. While finishing at or near 70 points is an impressive feat in the best league in the world, it’s hardly the top-tier, world-class production many expected after Bedard was drafted.
Now entering his third season, fans and pundits alike are guessing at how many goals, assists and points the 2024 Calder Trophy-winning center will produce. For this article, we’ll take a look at five other number-one overall picks from the modern era (post-2005) who came into the NHL with as much hype as Bedard did.
Jack Hughes — New Jersey Devils (2019)
Before being drafted by the New Jersey Devils in 2019, Jack Hughes broke the U.S. National Development Program’s all-time points record, finishing with 228 points (74 goals and 154 assists) in just 110 games, averaging 2.07 points-per-game (P/G).
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High expectations followed Hughes when he turned professional, but his first two seasons with the Devils were stunted by the COVID-19 pandemic, scoring 18 goals and recording 34 assists for 52 points in 117 regular-season games. After dislocating his shoulder just two games into his third season, Hughes found his stride and finished the season tied for the team lead in goals with 26 and third in points with 56 — despite playing just 49 games.
Hughes is now one of the league’s preeminent centers and has averaged more than a point-per-game in his last four seasons, including a 99-point campaign in 2022-23.
Auston Matthews — Toronto Maple Leafs (2016)
Despite Alex Ovechkin breaking Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record last season, there’s a case to be made that Toronto Maple Leafs’ captain Auston Matthews could be the greatest goal scorer in NHL history.
Before you send your letters and sharpen your pitchforks, consider this: Matthews, taken first overall in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft, scored his 400th goal in just his 628th career regular-season game. It took Ovechkin six more games to score his 400th.
Almost immediately after entering the league, Matthews was one of the game’s most dynamic offensive threats, scoring 40 and 34 goals in his first two seasons, respectively. In his third season in 2018-19, injuries only allowed him to play 68 games, but he still produced 37 goals and 36 assists for 73 points.
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Since then, Matthews has won the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy three times, produced two 60-goal seasons, including 69 in 2023-24 — the most in a single season since Mario Lemieux scored 69 in 1995-96. His goals-per-game rate is first among active players with 0.64, and according to NHL.com, he ranks third among post-1967 expansion players, behind just Mike Bossy (0.76) and Lemieux (0.75).
Connor McDavid — Edmonton Oilers (2015)
What can you say about the best player in the world?
Since entering the league in 2015-16, Connor McDavid has blessed fans with his presence. His rookie season was cut short by injuries, but he still finished with 48 points in 45 games. He took the NHL by storm the following season, recording 30 goals and 70 assists for a league-leading 100 points, earning him the Art Ross Trophy, the Ted Lindsay Award and the Hart Trophy at just 20 years old, becoming the third-youngest player ever to win it.
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In his third season, McDavid’s goal scoring jumped, finishing with 41 goals and 67 assists to post 108 points, again winning the Art Ross Trophy and Ted Lindsay Award.
Through 11 seasons, McDavid has won the Art Ross Trophy five times, the Hart Trophy three times, the Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy in 2022-23 and carried the Edmonton Oilers to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances in 2024 and 2025.
Nathan MacKinnon — Colorado Avalanche (2013)
Sure, we look at Nathan MacKinnon now as one of the game’s best players, unquestionably an elite talent whose name is always mentioned in the “If not McDavid, who’s the best?” conversation. But many had their doubts about the 2013 first-overall pick after his first few seasons in the league.
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A promising 63-point rookie campaign and Calder Trophy win for MacKinnon had Colorado Avalanche fans giddy about the future, especially after memories of Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg began to fade. But a subpar second season that saw him finish with 38 points left fans wondering if it was just a sophomore slump.
In MacKinnon’s third season, a lackluster Avalanche lineup that relied too much on young guns like Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog struggled to win games, missed the playoffs and saw the 2013 top pick score just 21 goals. In fact, his fourth season set off alarm bells for some, scoring 16 goals and finishing with 53 points in a full 82-game campaign.
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Eventually, things snapped into place, with MacKinnon recording three-straight 90-point seasons between 2017-18 and 2019-20, leading the team to a Stanley Cup championship in 2022 and winning the Hart Trophy in 2024.
John Tavares — New York Islanders (2009)
Younger fans may not realize how much hype followed John Tavares out of junior. The 2009 first-overall pick scored 72 goals and 134 points for the Ontario Hockey League’s Oshawa Generals in 2006-07 as a 16-year-old, a mark that still seems like a typo nearly 20 years later.
Finishing his rookie season for the New York Islanders with a respectable 24 goals and 54 points, Tavares followed that with 29 goals and 38 assists for 67 points, leading the team in both assists and points. Strong numbers for many in the league, but for someone as highly anticipated as he was, there was more to give.
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We saw that in 2011-12, Tavares’ third season, where the center finished with 81 points, the second-most points in the league (it was a slow era) and the fourth-most goals with 38. It was the first of five 80-point seasons Tavares would produce in his career … so far.
In the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season that followed, Tavares scored the third-most goals with 28 and finished with 47 points. He would be a finalist for the Hart Trophy, finishing third in voting. In 2024-25, at 34 and in his 16th NHL campaign, Tavares recorded 38 goals, tied for the second-most of his career, as well as 74 points, just a few shy of his 82-game average.
How Does Bedard Compare?
It’s difficult to project how Bedard’s production will evolve when compared to other names on this list. On one hand, he has a higher P/G than Hughes, MacKinnon and Tavares through their first two seasons, and his 82-game average is closer to Matthews than you might expect.
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On the other hand, all but MacKinnon were major contributors in their third seasons, finding themselves among the league’s highest point producers and kickstarting their primes. Whether or not they had talented linemates, they found ways to score and showcase some of the potential seen in their junior days.
While few expect the Blackhawks to make a late-season push for a wild card spot, almost everyone expects the 2023 first-overall pick to take his game to the next level. Don’t be surprised if we see the 20-year-old phenom break the 80-point ceiling and beyond in 2025-26.
