We’ve made it through the group stages of the Olympic Men’s Hockey tournament, and the four teams that are getting a bye to the quarterfinals are set: Canada, USA, Slovakia, and Finland.
On Wednesday, we’ll watch eight teams play to book their spot in the quarterfinals. Switzerland will play Italy, Germany against France, Czechia against Denmark and Sweden against Latvia.
With all the matchups set, here are my predictions for each game and how I think the winner will fare in their quarter-final matchup.
Switzerland (5) vs. Italy (12)
Puck drop: 6:10 am EST
Switzerland has looked really solid throughout the tournament in a difficult group. They beat France handily, then lost to Canada, where their star, Kevin Fiala, suffered a serious injury that ended his tournament, as well as his 2025-26 regular season. They followed up that disappointing game against Canada with a solid overtime win over Czechia.
Italy have been one of the surprises of the tournament, although they haven’t won a game. Their goaltenders, Damian Clara and Davide Fadani, have stood out throughout the tournament, keeping this team in games.
Related: 5 Takeaways From Sweden’s 5-2 Win Over Italy
Italy was expected to get crushed in all three of their games, and they did against Finland, but they were in tight games with Sweden and Slovakia. Although they’ve been a fun story, I think their tournament ends here.
Switzerland will beat Italy comfortably and go on to play Finland in the quarterfinals.
Germany (6) vs. France (11)
Puck drop: 6:10 am EST
Germany has been one of the more disappointing teams for me in this tournament. They’re headlined by NHL stars like Leon Draisaitl, Tim Stutzle and Moritz Seider. They also have other solid NHLers in JJ Peterka and Philipp Grubauer, who has been fantastic for the Seattle Kraken this season.
They beat Denmark in their opening game, but then lost a one-goal game to Latvia and were blown out by Team USA. The loss to the USA was expected, but Latvia was a game I thought they should’ve won. Before the tournament, I thought they would rack up two wins in their three group stage games.
France has probably been the most disappointing team in the tournament. The highlight for the French so far is probably them having a 3-2 lead over Czechia for just under 10 minutes before Czechia stormed back and won 6-3.
They were a team I expected to get crushed in their three games, and they have, leaving the group stage with a minus-15 goal differential, including a 10-2 loss to Canada.
Germany will win this game and book their ticket to the quarterfinals. Much like Italy, I think France is just overmatched against Germany.
Although the Germans don’t really have the depth to put up big fights against teams like Canada and the USA, their top-end talent should be enough to beat France.
Germany actually got lucky because the way the seeding worked out, I think they have the easiest quarterfinals matchup. They’ll play against Slovakia, who’ve been good this tournament and one of the biggest surprises.
Czechia (8) vs. Denmark (9)
Puck drop: 10:40 am
Czechia has probably been the most disappointing team in the tournament. They got crushed by Canada, won a game against France where they actually trailed at one point after going up 2-0, and lost to Switzerland in overtime.
Their top players haven’t been impressive, but all the talent is still there. Not having Pavel Zacha due to injury hurt their depth at center, and I think we’re seeing the effects now.
Denmark was a team with not many expectations heading into the tournament. They have goaltending with Frederik Andersen and some names in the forward group with Nikolaj Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand, but after that, there aren’t a ton of threats on this team.
What’s interesting is that they actually haven’t had many contributions from their NHLers. Just one of their eight goals through the three games against Germany, USA and Latvia came from their NHL players. Their leading goal scorer is Nick Olesen, who has scored three goals. He is 30 years old and is currently playing for Ceske Budejovice HC in the Czech league.
Denmark’s win over Latvia on the final day of the group stages allowed Denmark to avoid Sweden in the qualifying round and forced Latvia to play them.
Although Denmark’s win was a pleasant surprise for them, I think Czechia finds a way to pull out of their rut and beat Denmark to earn a rematch against Canada in the quarterfinals.
As I said earlier, Czechia’s top guys haven’t been good enough, but I’m not giving up on them just yet. Being able to throw out players like David Pastrnak, Tomas Hertl and Martin Necas is something Denmark won’t be able to match.
Something else that would scare me in a one-game elimination against Czechia is if Lukas Dostal can steal the game for Czechia. I don’t expect him to need to steal this game if they’re going to win, but he is an X-factor in any game Czechia plays.
Sweden (7) vs. Latvia (10)
Puck drop: 3:10 pm EST
I would’ve assumed Sweden would’ve won their group, but here they are not even being able to capture second in Group B.
Many, including myself, have been all over Sweden head coach Sam Hallam for how he’s utilizing his roster. One of the most perplexing decisions for me is the lack of ice time we’ve seen Filip Forsberg get. Through three games, he has gotten just 22:30 of time on ice, which is less than Pontus Holmberg.
Now, ahead of this clash against Latvia, Jesper Bratt is listed as the 13th forward for some reason. While for teams like the USA and Canada, the 13th forward allows them to mix in more options, it seems as though Sweden has really struggled to find ice time for their extra forward.
On top of poor coaching, we’ve seen Filip Gustavsson struggle in the tournament. He allowed two brutal goals against Italy and wasn’t sharp against Finland. Jacob Markstrom then got the start in the second half of the Finland-Slovakia back-to-back.
Latvia, on the other hand, always seem to perform better than the sum of its parts. They lost to the USA in a game that was tight until the USA pulled away in the second half of the second period, then got a good win over Germany. I thought they’d beat Denmark, but their slip-up means they now have to play Sweden instead of Czechia.
Alberts Smits is putting some good tape together to boost his draft stock at the 2026 NHL Draft, where he is projected to be a top 10 pick. They have a couple of NHLers, but their headliners are probably their goaltending tandem of Arturs Silovs and Elvis Merzlikins.
It will be interesting to see who gets the start against Sweden, but I don’t think Latvia wins regardless. Sweden is just miles better than Latvia from top to bottom, and regardless of their questionable coaching or struggling goaltending, we’ll see them take on Team USA in the quarterfinals.
