Fans were treated to three overtime games in the quarterfinals of the 2026 Winter Olympics Men’s Hockey tournament. This included the game of the tournament between Canada and Czechia, a miraculous comeback from Finland to beat Switzerland and the USA fending off a heartbreaking elimination at the hands of Sweden.
After all of that action, our semifinal matchups are set. Canada takes on Finland, while the USA will take on Slovakia. Here is who I think will advance to the gold medal game.
USA vs. Slovakia
After two polar opposite games for each team in the quarterfinals, Slovakia will face their biggest challenge so far.
Slovakia have been a fantastic story. I thought Germany’s superstars would overpower them in the quarterfinals, but Germany didn’t show up like I thought they would, and Slovakia blew them out 6-2 in a comfortable victory.
Related: 3 Takeaways From Slovakia’s 6-2 Win Over Germany
Now, the young Slovak core gets to take on the USA, which just barely staved off elimination at the hands of Sweden.
Team USA survived a huge scare as it felt like they were in control of their matchup against Sweden for about 70 percent of the game. Sweden struggled to create many opportunities against the Americans until Mika Zibanejad’s one-timer just barely squeaked through Connor Hellebuyck on his short side.
Quinn Hughes put the game on ice in overtime with a great shot that got past Jacob Markstrom and rang off the post before going in.
While Slovak hockey has a bright future with its young core, I think the Americans are a flat-out better team.
Slovakia took advantage of a deeper roster against the Germans after keeping Germany’s stars in check for most of the game. After each team’s best players cancelled each other out, Slovakia dominated the game, and you could tell Germany wasn’t at the same level.
In this game against the Americans, even if Juraj Slafkovsky and Dalibor Dvorsky are able to cancel out the top American forwards, which I don’t even see happening, the depth of this American lineup is in a different stratosphere in comparison to Germany.
The USA will overwhelm Slovakia, and even if Samuel Hlavaj plays his best game of the tournament, the USA will be countering with Hellebuyck. He has the reputation of not showing up in the biggest moments, but he has looked as dialled in as ever during these Olympics.
The Americans will punch their ticket to the gold medal game, while Slovakia will be playing for bronze.
Canada vs. Finland
This should be another tight, emotional game for both these teams, who both had to come back and win in overtime in their quarterfinal matchups.
One of the X-factors of this matchup for me is the status of Sidney Crosby. After leaving the game against Czechia in the second period with a knee injury, he had to take an MRI, and it seems as though Canada will know more about his condition on Thursday.
It felt like once Crosby left the game, Canada turned into a one-line team. For a long time, the MacKinnon – McDavid – Celebrini line was the only one creating offence. It got better as the game went on, but it still wasn’t great.
If they struggled to find offence against Czechia, Finland is an even worse matchup in that respect. Finland has the ability to suffocate teams, and that will make life incredibly difficult if they aren’t able to figure out four forward lines that can get going.
One of the ways I can see Finland taking this is if they can shut Canada down on the rush. One of the areas that I see as a mismatch in this matchup is the speed throughout both lineups. Finland isn’t slow, but I think Canada does have more speed throughout.
I’m also still waiting for Mikko Rantanen to have a signature game in this tournament. He’s shown flashes but hasn’t taken over a game like he’s capable of.
The goaltending matchup is also interesting to me. I’ve been a big fan of Jordan Binnington’s play throughout this tournament, but Juuse Saros at his best is as good as it gets.
He had a brutal first game against Slovakia, and the first goal on Wednesday against Switzerland was ugly. Aside from that, I think he’s been rock solid this tournament. He bounced back from the tough first game and recovered after the ugly first goal he allowed, keeping Finland in the game.
Saros has the ability to steal a game, and Binnington will always have question marks around him until the tournament is over.
With that being said, I think Canada comes out on top in this game. If Crosby is playing, it makes my prediction a little bit easier, but either way, it’ll be a tight game. I just think the top guys for Canada are playing so well right now that they won’t be denied.
Canada may also get Josh Morrissey and Sam Bennett back in the lineup against Finland, which could be two huge boosts. Morrissey is so important to this lineup because he slides everyone into lower roles, and Bennett lives for games like this.
I think we get a Canada-USA matchup in the gold medal game, just like we did back in 2010 in Vancouver. Crosby scored one of the most iconic goals in Olympic history that day to take home gold for Canada on home soil.
