With every NHL team having 20 or fewer games remaining, we are getting close to the time of year when we see letters popping up in the standings beside teams’ names, signifying a playoff spot clinched.
According to MoneyPuck‘s playoff odds, there are three teams with an 100% chance of making the playoffs in the Western Conference. The one with the fourth-highest odds is the Utah Mammoth, with a 93.5% chance, as they sit seven points up on the San Jose Sharks, who are the closest team to challenging the Seattle Kraken for the second wild card spot.
The only (not so) unfortunate part of this for the Mammoth is that they’re unlikely to climb any higher in the standings, with all three Western Conference teams at the top of the Central Division and at least 12 points ahead of them.
However, even though the Mammoth is pretty much locked into a spot in the bracket, they desperately need to maintain the top wild card spot in the West, as it will set them up in a much better position to be a darkhorse team in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Western Conference Playoff Bracket
If the playoffs started today, the playoff teams would be…
This would create first-round matchups between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild, and the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers, as the two and three-seed matchups from each division. Then that leaves the Avalanche, who would be matching up with the Kraken, and the Mammoth drawing the Ducks, the top seed in the Pacific Division.
Now, there is still plenty of hockey to be played, and the Pacific may be the most jumbled division in the NHL, with six teams within seven points of the top spot. There could be a lot of shuffling still to come on that side of the conference, meaning it’s far too early to dissect early round playoff matchups for the Mammoth. But there is no debating the benefit of facing the Pacific Division winner rather than the current Cup favorites, the Avalanche.
The Loaded Central Division
If the Mammoth were to finish in the second wild card spot, it would ensure they would have to go through a gauntlet in the playoffs. As mentioned, it would likely start against the Avalanche and Nathan MacKinnon, who looked ready to rip the head off the stuffed animal he was handed after Team Canada lost the gold medal in the Olympics.
The 2022 Stanley Cup champions are sitting with the best odds to win the Cup at 13.5%. They’re followed by the Stars, who have an 11.9% chance, and the Wild with a 5.7% chance in the Western Conference.
Say the Mammoth finish second in the wild card and pull off the miracle upset over the top seed in the West, their reward would be a second-round matchup with these two other powerhouses in their division.
Truthfully, I don’t see the Mammoth being able to hang with any of these teams in a seven-game playoff series. Objectively, their depth could be considered on par with any of these teams; however, it’s really not up for debate that the Mammoth don’t have much to compete with the MacKinnon/Cale Makar, Kirill Kaprizov/Quinn Hughes, or Mikko Rantanen/Miro Heiskanen duos, at least not quite yet.
While this division may not be the most competitive across the board, the Central is easily the most top-heavy, being the only division with more than one team with 85 points or more this season. Luckily, the Mammoth are in a position to control their own destiny, avoid these early matchups, and allow these teams to purge each other, while the Mammoth could potentially make a run on the other side of the bracket.
Mammoth Could Be Darkhorse on Pacific Side of the Bracket
While the Central is debatably the best division in hockey, I don’t think it’s debatable that the Pacific is the worst in the NHL. The Mammoth would be tied for the division lead with 73 points, and two Eastern Conference teams on the outside of the playoff picture would also be tied for the division lead.
Currently, it is led by the Ducks, who have a negative-10 goal differential. They’re followed by the Golden Knights, who are definitely better than their 72 points indicate, and the Oilers, who will always be dangerous, as long as they are led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Related: 3 Takeaways From Mammoth’s 5-0 Loss to Wild
However, all these teams have flaws. The Ducks are a young rebuilding team that hasn’t made the playoffs since the 2017-18 season. They lack playoff experience, just like the Mammoth. Outside of their superstars, the Oilers have concerns everywhere: depth forward production, a couple of underperforming blueliners, and goaltending. Then there is the Golden Knights, who have the worst team save percentage in the NHL.
On this side, the Mammoth will likely have competitive odds against anyone, compared to a playoff matchup with any of their rivals in the Central. Against any team in the Pacific, you can see a pathway to victory for the Mammoth. But if they end up on the other side of the bracket, I don’t see a path where they beat a combination of the Avalanche, Wild, or Stars back-to-back in a playoff series.
That’s why the Mammoth need to ensure no one chases them down for the top wild card spot in the West, to avoid the several heavy hitters in their division for as long as possible.
