Per the 2 Mutts Hockey Podcast: “It sounds like Evan Bouchard has told the Edmonton Oilers his ask is 8 years with an AAV of $ 10M. Oilers know that an arbitrator will give Bouchard $10M this summer, so they would like to get a deal done ASAP, as Bouchard only wants to play in Edmonton.” This source isn’t the only one suggesting $10 million per season is around where Bouchard’s next deal might fall. TSN’s Ryan Rishaug has him making just under $11 million.
Reading that report made something obvious: if Bouchard takes a $250K haircut on his next contract, it could change the outlook on his deal and the pressure that comes with his long-term extension. In fact, $250K could dictate his future and might make his next run with the Oilers nearly pressure-free.
Why Would $250K Make the Difference for Bouchard?
You might be asking, ‘How could $250K on a $10 million deal change much of anything?’ To me, the answer is optics.
The moment Bouchard signs a $10 million or higher contract extension, the level of expectation about what he’ll deliver over the next eight seasons rises exponentially. By now, most Oiler fans have heard $10 million is the number, and maybe more is what it takes. Given Bouchard’s already polarizing reputation among the fan base, that contract will require him not just to live up to the deal, but to surpass its value — which he probably will.
However, the first few seasons of that contract will come with incredible pressure. The Oilers’ window to win is now. They’ve tried twice and failed. Edmonton needs to make the money work, and Bouchard’s deal is a massive chunk of what will create financial challenges moving forward.
All Bouchard has to do is take a hair less than everyone assumes it will take, bring that number down to something with a nine in front of it, and he’ll immediately be seen as a friend to the franchise, doing his part off the ice to help them build a winner. All the while, he’ll still be making life-changing money.
Darnell Nurse Is What Happens When the Number Is Too High
Darnell Nurse is not to blame for his contract. The Oilers bridged him twice and walked him right into a negotiation where comparables meant he was going to get $9 million or more. Since the day he signed that deal, however, he has been seen as a player who is an albatross on the team, regardless of how well he plays.
Related: What Would a McDavid to the Maple Leafs Trade Look Like?
Fans tend to ignore all the good things Nurse does because they’re too focused on his bloated salary. What Bouchard doesn’t want is eight years of fans crying he’s making too much. He doesn’t need to be the team’s next whipping boy. Perhaps he can handle it and doesn’t let outside noise affect him. At the same time, why put yourself in that situation?
Frankly, $10 million is fair when you look at his statistics and work in projections about where the salary cap is going to go. $9.75 million feels like a discount.
Bouchard Can Do Himself a Massive Favor for a Marginal Fee
The difference between $9.75 million and $10 million over eight years is substantial to you and me. To someone like Bouchard, once taxes, escrow, and everything else get worked in, it’s marginal. However, the optics of what it looks like for Bouchard to make $9.75 versus $10 million are huge. It’s essentially the difference between scoring 79% on your test versus 80%. It’s only one percent, but, for some reason, an 79 feels so much lower.
The stress he might avoid by giving up a total of $2 million (less fees and taxes) over the next eight seasons might be worth it. He’d be following in the footsteps of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom could have taken more, but didn’t. And, in two or three seasons, when the cap hit rises about $120 million, his $9.75 million will look like a bargain.
That’s what the Oilers need. And a reputation as an elite defenseman making less than he should be is what Bouchard could use to give him the freedom to do what he does without long-lasting financial persecution.
