The Minnesota Wild have reached the second round for the first time since the 2014-15 season, where they were promptly swept by the Chicago Blackhawks. This season, they beat a very good Dallas Stars team in six games and have now earned a matchup with the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche.
It’s going to be a tough series with the Avalanche coming off plenty of rest after sweeping the Los Angeles Kings, and the Wild playing a physically gruelling series against the Stars, but I think the Wild have a good chance of pulling off the upset.
With that being said, here are my three X-factors that can swing this series in either direction.
Health and Rest
This one is a bit obvious, but it will matter a great deal. The Avalanche took care of business against the Kings in short order. Due to their ability to complete the sweep, they ended their series on April 26, in comparison to the Wild, who finished their series four days later, on April 30.
Not only are the Avalanche getting the benefit of being well rested, but the Wild are dealing with key injuries heading into this series. Both Joel Eriksson Ek and Jonas Brodin seem to be out for both Games 1 and 2, with neither of them travelling to Colorado with the team.
Not only was Eriksson Ek fantastic in Round 1, posting three goals and two assists in the six games, but the Wild’s weakness is already their center depth. On top of that, I’d say the biggest strength of this Avs team is their center depth.
If the Wild can pull out one win before heading back to Minnesota for Game 3, that would be a big swing in the series. On the other hand, the Avalanche have a huge chance to take a 2-0 chokehold against a Wild team that just got out of a dogfight of a series.
Can the Wild Drag the Avalanche Into a Fight?
The Avalanche swept the Kings, but the first two games were one-goal games, and Game 3 was a 4-2 Avs win with an empty net goal. The Kings were able to keep games tight by playing a suffocating neutral zone trap. I don’t think the Wild should even consider that because they’re much better than the Kings, but they do need to try to force Colorado to play their game.
The Wild can skate with the Avalanche, but I think Colorado takes the series if it turns into a track meet. That’s why they need to do exactly what they did to the Stars, which is physically dominate them during and after play.
The fourth line with the two Foligno brothers played a big role in the series and was physically imposing against Dallas. Both of them can be pests, and I think if they’re going to win this series, you have to pull them into the fight.
If they can drag Colorado into the muck and agitate guys like Nazem Kadri, who have had a history of not being able to control their temper, they can force Colorado away from their game and get under their skin.
How Does Colorado Handle the Faber-Hughes Pairing
Brock Faber and Quinn Hughes were unbelievable against the Stars. As a pair, they posted a 53.1 percent expected goals percentage (xG%) in the series and were phenomenal at moving the puck through the neutral zone.
They were the definition of game-breaking, and Colorado’s first priority needs to be figuring out how to slow them down.
Now, I don’t have the answers on how to do it; if I did, I’d be applying for a coaching job with the Stars. The thing that would give me some sort of hope if I were an Avs fan is the fact that the Colorado roster can skate with Minnesota.
They also obviously have the luxury of matching that pairing with the only defenseman I’d take over Hughes, Cale Makar.
One thing I did notice was how easy it was for the two of them to gain the zone and skate through the neutral zone against Dallas. If the Avalanche can clog up the neutral zone, it would help big time in neutralizing the pairing’s effectiveness.
Game 1 goes tonight at 9 ET. We’ll see if any of these X factors come into play.
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