The Big Picture: Who Will Win AFC South? Colts Skid Opens Things Up For Jags, Texans

Five weeks ago, the AFC South did not look like a division that would go down to the wire.

The Colts were 7-1 and the surprise success of the first half of the 2025 season. They were solidly ahead of the Jaguars (4-3) and Texans (3-4) in the AFC South standings, leading them to trade two first-round picks to the Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner ahead of the trade deadline. 

Fast forward to Week 14, and the AFC South is one of the closest divisions in the NFL. One game separates first and third place in the division. The Jaguars and Colts both sit at 8-4, while the Texans have improved to 7-5. 

Three pivotal games still remain between those three teams. Jacksonville (8-4) plays host to Indianapolis on Sunday. The winner of that game will be in the driver’s seat of the AFC South with four weeks left in the season. However, Houston has won four in a row and is just a game back with the easiest remaining schedule of the three teams (and ninth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL).

How will the AFC South shake out? Let’s take a look and see what’s ahead for the Jaguars, Colts and Texans the rest of the way.

Liam Coen has helped the Jaguars become one of the NFL’s top surprises in his first season as head coach, leading them to an 8-4 start. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)

Playoff probability: 84%, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator

Remaining opponents: vs. Colts (Week 14), vs. Jets (Week 15), at Broncos (Week 16), at Colts (Week 17), vs. Titans (Week 18). The Jaguars’ remaining opponents have a combined 30-30 record.

Previous games against vs. Colts, Texans: Defeated Houston, 17-10, in Week 3; lost to Houston, 36-29, in Week 10

Momentum: The Jaguars have won three straight and four of five, though the last two were against the lowly Cardinals and Titans. Sunday’s home game against the Colts could make them the team to beat, with two easy games in their final four to help things. If Jacksonville loses Sunday, its wild-card hopes are strong, but its odds to win the division are cut in half. One word of caution: Trevor Lawrence is 3-10 for his career in December games, his worst record in any month, with 15 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. All three of these teams are in the NFL’s top eight in turnover margin, so maintaining that is crucial to a strong finish.

Jonathan Taylor was considered to be an MVP candidate earlier this season, but he and the Colts have seen their momentum slip in recent weeks. (Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images)

Playoff probability: 68%, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator

Remaining opponents: at Jaguars (Week 14), at Seahawks (Week 15), vs. 49ers (Week 16), vs. Jaguars (Week 17), at Texans (Week 18). The Colts’ remaining opponents have a combined 41-20 record.

Previous games vs. Jaguars, Texans: Lost to Houston, 20-16, in Week 13

Momentum: Indianapolis has lost two straight and three of four, all by one score, and the Colts needed overtime to beat the Falcons for their only win in that stretch. In the last 25 years, only one NFL team has opened 7-1 and missed the playoffs: the 2012 Bears, who finished 10-6 and missed the last wild card on a tiebreaker. The Colts’ final five opponents all have winning records, and they have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. So, there are no gimmes the rest of the way, and Daniel Jones is playing through a leg injury as well. Shane Steichen is 1-3 against the Jaguars, but needs to salvage a split in those two. Even going 2-3 in their remaining games should be enough to get them in the playoffs.

Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson have helped the Texans form one of the league’s top pass rushes this season. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

Playoff probability: 59%, per The Athletic’s playoff simulator

Remaining opponents: at Chiefs (Week 14), vs. Cardinals (Week 15), vs. Raiders (Week 16), at Chargers (Week 17), vs. Colts (Week 18). The Texans’ remaining opponents have a combined 27-33 record.

Previous games vs. Jaguars, Colts: Lost to Jacksonville, 17-10, in Week 3; defeated Jacksonville, 36-29, in Week 10; defeated Indianapolis, 20-16, in Week 13

Momentum: Houston has won four straight and five of six, weathering a spell without quarterback C.J. Stroud and now getting a boost with his healthy return. What helps is having the NFL’s No. 1 defense in points and yards allowed. If the Texans can win Sunday at the Chiefs — never an easy task, as Kansas City is 5-1 at home this season — they follow that with two easier games that should be wins and could be 10-5 after a 1-4 start to the season. The Texans are already 4-1 in the division, so if they can take care of the Colts at home in Week 18, they’d have the tiebreaker on the Colts and potentially the Jaguars. 

Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.

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