Calgary Flames 2026-27 Player Projections: Morgan Frost – The Hockey Writers – Calgary Flames

The 2026–27 NHL season is quickly approaching. Before it kicks off, let’s take advantage of the dog days of summer and start looking ahead at expectations for the Calgary Flames and their roster.

In this series, we’ll take a closer look at each player individually and provide a statistical projection based on historical performance, expected role, and future opportunity.

I’ve blended two approaches when building these projections: one based solely on each player’s historical stats, and another based on each player’s historical share of the Flames’ overall production. Combining both methods helps account for both what a player has produced individually and how they have produced relative to the team’s overall offensive output.

The model uses three-year weighted data from the previous seasons (2025–26: 50%, 2024–25: 30%, 2023–24: 20%), giving the more recent seasons the greatest influence.  

The variable part of these projections reflects adjustments for expected role changes and age. Players taking on greater or lesser responsibilities at even strength or on special teams will see those changes reflected. At the same time, age adjustments account for expected development or decline based on each player’s career stage.

One last disclaimer: these projections are done on a per-game basis. Rather than attempting to predict injuries, the goal is to estimate what each player can produce if they’re healthy for all 82 games.

With the methodology out of the way, let’s take a look at Morgan Frost and what to expect from him throughout the 2026–27 season.

Morgan Frost’s Baseline

On paper, with Nazem Kadri gone to the Colorado Avalanche, Frost will unquestionably come into training camp as the top center on the Flames. Is that a role he’d play on a Stanley Cup contender? Probably not. However, I think there is potential for him to thrive in this opportunity and prove he is due for a massive raise once his contract expires after this 2026-27 season.

He is coming off his first full season with the Flames, where he scored 22 goals, his first time crossing the 20-goal milestone in his career, and totalled 43 points, which included a career-high 16 power-play points.

In 2024-25, he started the season with the Philadelphia Flyers and was traded mid-season along with Joel Farabee to the Flames.  He came over in what I call a problem-for-problem type of deal, where the Flames sent Andre Kuzmenko and Jacob Pelletier, the Flames’ underperforming first-round pick from 2019, back to the Flyers, with both parties trying to give players a change of scenery to bring the best out of all of them.

That’s not entirely what happened, especially with Kuzmenko, who has since been with the Los Angeles Kings and has now signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins, and Pelletier, who has still failed to crack the 25 games played mark in a single NHL season.

When he was younger, it was expected that Frost would be more than a half-point-per-game player, but he has sat around for four straight seasons, with 43 last year, 37 the season before, and 41 and 46 points in the seasons before that.

Expected Role

Last season, Frost was the Flames’ fourth-most-used forward overall and second-most-used forward on the power play. There isn’t much ice time to add to that usage; however, I do think we’ll see his ice time increase from the 15:30 per game he averaged last season.

He’ll have a full season as their top centre, barring another midseason trade, which could become much more possible as other teams around the league begin to look for rental pieces near the trade deadline. He’ll be getting all the offensive zone starts and will likely be the Flames’ primary puck handler, creating zone entries and space to work with on the power play.

In other words, he’ll have every opportunity to break out into the type of player the Flyers thought he could develop into a few seasons ago.

2026-27 Projections

While he may have every opportunity to take his game to the next level, entering the prime of his career now that he’s 27, it’s hard to see it happening on this team.

The talent is there; he has great hands and great vision, which allow him to thrive in transition. However, he isn’t much of an offensive chance driver, but rather a transition playmaker who would thrive alongside a high-volume elite shooter, which he has never really had the chance to play with in his career.

To me, for Frost to take his game to the next level, it will rely on him either becoming much more aggressive trying to create chances for himself, which we have little to no evidence of him being able to do or a Matthew Coronato breakout season, who will likely be Frost’s most common linemate, where he would scores 25-30 goals, which is well above where I projected his numbers, but is possible, if he were to take a big step in his development alongside a solid passer like Frost.

But all of that is very speculative. At this point in his career, Frost is likely as good as he will be, and expecting much beyond the 45-point mark would set us up to be disappointed. But in all honesty, I think someone will give the Flames an offer they can’t refuse for Frost before this season is over, and we may not be able to fairly see if this projection is accurate or not, assuming he’d get a smaller role on any team looking for him midseason.