There’s no question that the pressure is on general manager Tom Fitzgerald to make the right moves for the New Jersey Devils this offseason. As they head into another year of “win now” mode, they have still yet to get past the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (2023).
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Even with the increasing cap, they’ll likely have to make some tough decisions before October. As it stands, PuckPedia projects them to have just over $12 million in cap space for 2025-26…and that’s before inevitably extending Luke Hughes. Nathan Bastian, Curtis Lazar, Justin Dowling and Daniel Sprong don’t count towards that figure either, as they are set to become unrestricted free agents (UFA). Neither do pending restricted free agents (RFA) Nolan Foote or Cody Glass.
With such a lack of wiggle room, the Devils can’t afford to strap themselves any further. Thus, after four seasons of sporadic NHL starts, it’s time Nico Daws gets the full-time backup role.
A Case for Daws Over Allen
Daws is slated to make just $812,500 this season – an average annual value (AAV) almost $3 million less than Jake Allen’s projected deal (2 years, ~$7 million, via AFP Analytics).
In a theoretical cap-less world, it would be a safer bet for the Devils to bring back Allen, who Fitzgerald recently told NHL.com “would like to stay”. Allen was great in his 31 games, playing to a 2.66 goals against average (GAA) and .906 save percentage (SV%). The Devils always seemed to play worse defensively when Allen was in goal; his +18.4 goals saved above expected (GSAx) was a top 10 figure in the league despite being a backup (via MoneyPuck). Furthermore, per 60 minutes, his +0.635 GSAx (GSAx/60) trailed only Anthony Stolarz among 61 goalies to play 20+ games this season.
Daws himself had a very peculiar season. On one hand, he looked like a Vezina caliber goalie in very limited time with the Devils, going 3-1-0 with a 1.60 GAA and .939 SV%. He stopped +4.9 goals above expected during that span – a per-game rate ~30% better than any of the NHL’s 61 regular netminders (min. 40 games played). From the eye test, he was extremely poised and confident.
“I think I’ve taken a lot of the right steps and making good progress, a lot of confidence, and I’m happy with where I’m at,” said Daws at exit interviews. “Hopefully I’ll be able to make a push to make this team next year.”
However, a small sample is that for a reason. With the Utica Comets of the American Hockey League (AHL), he won just 11 of 34 games with a rough .893 SV%. So, which version of Daws is the one that will stick around?
Well to be fair, the Comets as a whole were not very good. Lapses in defensive coverage were a common theme, often leaving Daws completely out to dry. We don’t have the luxury of “expected” stats for the AHL, but their team SV% as a whole was similarly .893%, so it’s not like Daws was an outlier. He deserves the benefit of the doubt given his strong NHL performance.
While he certainly isn’t a guarantee, there’s no promise that Allen, who turns 35 this summer, will be either. In the two seasons before 2024-25, Allen carried an .893 SV% (76 games).
The rest of the UFA goaltending market is thin, to the point where Allen might actually be considered the top name available. That’ll only drive up his price, potentially costing the Devils valuable cap space that could be better utilized elsewhere.
The bottom line is that Jacob Markstrom showed he can handle the 1A role in New Jersey just fine, and even more importantly, will show up come playoff time. Goalies will always be like relief pitchers in baseball where their performance can fluctuate greatly season-to-season. But Daws turns 25 in December; it’s time to give him his shot as a regular back-up.
Lastly, the Devils’ defense was one of the better units in the league, and are all under contract for a good while, minus Hughes (which will change soon). Unless they get decimated by injuries again, it would be hard to imagine they wouldn’t help keep most goalies in every game.
The small risk is worth the sweet, sweet reward of a few extra million dollars to upgrade the forward core.
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