Reasons for Optimism & Pessimism for Lightning’s 2026-27 Season – The Hockey Writers – Tampa Bay Lightning

The Tampa Bay Lightning have begun the latest phase of preparing for the 2026-27 season. As usual, there is a reason to be optimistic about the upcoming season.

This is a team that hasn’t missed the playoffs in a decade, and they’re consistently competitive. That being said, there are some concerns that could lead to someone choosing to lower their expectations.

Here are two reasons for optimism and two for pessimism. I’ll alternate between each side of the argument, starting with a positive look.

Reason for Optimism: Key Additions to the Roster

Darren Raddysh is out, but they replaced him with a reliable option in John Carlson. Even better is that he’s going out of his way to express how excited he is to be in Tampa in particular.

Statistically, Raddysh had the better season in 2025-26, but Carlson has the track record. He also came at a lower cap hit, so his addition comes with an extra perk for the continued effort to overhaul the roster.

There is some promise when it comes to having a backup goalie. Dennis Hildeby had a solid season in Toronto. He could potentially take some pressure off Andrei Vasilevskiy, who isn’t getting any younger.

With a stronger backup goalie, that should eliminate possible throwaway games, too. At times, having Jonas Johansson in net was a gamble. A few more games won with a backup here and there would better position them in the standings.

There are some holes, but this is still a very competitive roster despite the players who have come and gone over the last few seasons.

Reason for Pessimism: Four Straight Early Exits

It’s not even early exits. This team hasn’t made it beyond the first round since they were in their third consecutive Stanley Cup Final. They went from taking 12 different rounds of playoff hockey to eliminate them to exits becoming routine.

Sure, they’ll likely be considered a Cup contender. On paper, they should be considered such. But it’s reached the point where selecting them to come out of the Eastern Conference is based on a track record that is slowly going further into the past.

It hasn’t helped that there is decreasing confidence in certain players getting the job done. Brandon Hagel, for example, stuck his neck out for the entire team against the Montreal Canadiens. Few others got the job done.

Fortunately for the Lightning, this team continues to retool. They even took a team to seven games last season. However, I’ll believe it when I see it that they reach the second round. The Eastern Conference is only getting tougher.

Reason for Optimism: This Team Is Still Worthy of Hardware

Playoff hopes ended early again. That being said, there were still individual honors to celebrate.

Three members of the team walked away from last season with an award. Nikita Kucherov won the Hart Memorial Trophy, the MVP determined by the writers. Vasilevskiy won the Vezina Trophy, the award for the best goalie, for the first time since 2018-19. Head coach Jon Cooper finally won his Jack Adams Award, the award for the top head coach in the NHL.

Down in Tampa Bay, there isn’t just a good team. Some stars appear to have plenty left in the tank. Those who are fans of other teams are going to look at that and think, same old Lightning. As long as the star power is there, there is hope for a Stanley Cup run.

Reason for Pessimism: Health After Last Season Is a Concern

On paper, this is still a very talented team despite being on the older side. However, your guess is as good as mine as to how available some key players will be.

After what Victor Hedman went through last season, I’ll give him a pass, even with the injuries that came before he stepped away. I think he’s determined to put it behind him, and he’ll be back with something to prove.

Another pass goes to Pontus Holmberg. If the penalty box door is properly closed, he’s likely healthy for the playoffs. He should be fine after getting the offseason to heal.

Beyond him, that’s where some concerns lie. Ryan McDonagh missed about half the season. Brayden Point missed about 20 games, and Hagel and Anthony Cirelli both missed 11 games.

Let’s not forget that Vasilevskiy scared everyone in training camp. He came back and won the Vezina, but it served as a reminder that the Lightning have to be careful with him.

It’s a lot of injuries to juggle, and it’s hard to make a case that each and every player will be fine. That’s just not how things work. The hope just has to be that they miss less time overall.

If there is at least one thing to take away from this, it’s the hopes and concerns that come with a team that is still pretty good. Some teams are pessimistic because they feel their teams are cursed, or they’re just not very good. While the concerns are still valid, it serves as a nice reminder that it could always be worse.