St. Louis Blues’ Dylan Holloway Has a Realistic Shot at 30+ Goals – The Hockey Writers – St Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues took a chance when they tendered an offer sheet to Dylan Holloway in August 2024. Just over two years later, Holloway has emerged as a goal scorer, with a new five-year contract extension signed in May, keeping him in the Blue Note through 2030-31.

At 25 years old, Holloway has the opportunity to take his game to the next level. If he can stay healthy, the Calgary native may not only reach the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career; he could reach 40.

Breaking Out in St. Louis

The decision to tender an offer sheet to restricted free agent Holloway was a low-risk, high-reward opportunity. However, how many expected him to emerge so quickly? In his first two seasons with the Edmonton Oilers, Holloway scored just nine goals. Of course, the Oilers’ star power limited Holloway’s ice time, averaging just 10:21 per game.

Since joining the Blues, Holloway’s role has expanded, as did his production. In 136 games, he has scored 48 goals and 114 points. He has also missed 28 games over the last two seasons due to various injuries. He could have easily reached the 30-goal mark each of the last two campaigns if he had played a full schedule. As a result, Holloway reaching around 35 goals this season is a realistic expectation.

Sustainable Scoring

As a general rule, a hockey player aims to have a scoring percentage of 10% or higher. In his breakout 2024-25 season, Holloway’s shooting percentage was 14.6%. In 2025-26, it was 13.6%. This puts his two-season average at 14.1%; Nathan MacKinnon, who led the NHL with 53 goals last season, recorded a 15.1% shooting percentage.

This tells us his scoring is sustainable. Furthermore, it tells us that increasing his shot volume could be the key to scoring 30+ goals. Holloway recorded 162 shots in 59 games last season, or roughly 2.75 per game. Over 82 games, that rate would produce around 225 shots. At his 14.1% shooting percentage since joining St. Louis, 225 shots would result in approximately 32 goals.

Could he reach 40 goals? He would need around 280 shots at the same conversion rate, or a small increase in finishing percentage. Neither scenario is impossible, but to help Holloway reach this, he will need to be playing with some strong playmakers. Thankfully, he is.

Thomas and Snuggerud

Captain Robert Thomas could be the biggest factor in Holloway reaching his ceiling. One of the NHL’s elite playmakers, Thomas excels at creating opportunities for his linemates and drawing defenders toward him before finding open teammates. Just as Holloway can help Thomas possibly reach 90+ points, Thomas can help Holloway reach 30+ goals.

Jimmy Snuggerud cannot be ignored either. His presence on the line is beneficial because opponents must be aware of three legitimate scoring threats. Teams cannot simply focus on one player. Too much attention paid to one creates more space for the others. All three members of the line have a lot of potential, with Holloway’s possible 30+ goal campaign being just one of many storylines to watch from this line.

The Key to 30+ Goals

Health is the biggest variable. His 22 goals in 59 games last season demonstrate he is on a 30-goal pace. Staying on the ice for at least 79 games, maintaining his role and generating offense alongside Thomas and Snuggerud could quickly push him into the 30+-goal threshold.

If he stays healthy, a reasonable projection is 34-37 goals and 75-82 points if he plays close to a full 84-game season. Furthermore, if the Thomas-Snuggerud-Holloway line clicks, his shot rate increases, and he takes advantage of additional opportunities (like on the power play), a 40-goal season is not impossible. He does not need to reinvent his game to reach those numbers. He mainly needs health and opportunity.

A Star on the Horizon?

Holloway has already gone from a player struggling to find a consistent role on the Oilers to one of St. Louis’ most important forwards. The next stage could be establishing himself as one of the NHL’s better goal-scorers.

After producing 48 goals in 136 games during his first two seasons as a Blue, a 35-goal campaign would represent progression rather than an explosion. And if Holloway spends most of 2026-27 receiving passes from Thomas with Snuggerud occupying defenders on the opposite side, Blues fans should not be shocked if he spends part of the season flirting with 40 goals.