Toronto Maple Leafs May Not Control Their Playoff Destiny in 2026-27 – The Hockey Writers – Toronto Maple Leafs

With the Toronto Maple Leafs’ season from hell behind them and after an incredibly busy offseason so far, it’s time to consider whether everything new general manager John Chayka and his staff have done is enough to make this team a playoff contender in 2026-27.

When I say “everything”, it really does feel like they changed everything. The Maple Leafs have nine additions to the lineup, including Darren Raddysh, Gavin McKenna, and Sergei Bobrovsky. He might not be the biggest name, but Teddy Blueger is an underrated signing that will be worth keeping an eye on. Notable departures include Joseph Woll, Nick Robertson, and Simon Benoit.

On paper, I like what Toronto has done. They have a clear-cut top and bottom six for the first time in a while, and adding Raddysh and Emil Andrae should allow them to move the puck from the back end better than they have in recent seasons.

“Yes Bob or No Bob” seems to be the game that everyone is playing right now, but for me, it’s a yes. We can argue whether Chayka’s attempt to keep Auston Matthews by creating almost a new team around him will be worth it long term. That’s fair. If we’re judging the work done this summer, Chayka and company did a very good job.

Are the Maple Leafs a playoff team? If this were three years ago, I’d say yes. They still might be, but while they took 2025-26 off, many teams have improved, both in and out of the division. So regardless of what they did in the offseason, their playoff hopes may be out of their hands.

Top 3 in Division Is No Longer a Guarantee

Remember the days when the Maple Leafs finishing top three in the Atlantic Division was a preseason lock? Those days are gone. Last season, the Buffalo Sabres, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Montreal Canadiens finished one, two, and three, while the Boston Bruins and Ottawa Senators grabbed the two wild-card spots in the East. Five of the eight playoff teams came from the Atlantic, so which team will fall out of the picture to make way for Toronto?

The Canadiens lost Brendan Gallagher, who was not in the lineup towards the end of their playoff run, and beyond that, they didn’t do a heck of a lot this summer. They are a young team whose core will continue to get stronger, but they didn’t add any pieces to get them over the hump. It’s hard to know just how much better they will be this season.

The Sabres couldn’t re-sign Alex Tuch, and they traded Bowen Byram. The only player of note they added was Olen Zellweger on defence, who has upside but struggled toward the end of his tenure with the Anaheim Ducks. Like the Canadiens, it’s hard to know how much better the Sabres will be. Realistically, they could regress a little bit. But unlike Montreal, they lost a couple of really important players.

I always struggle to predict what will happen in Tampa Bay. On paper, they didn’t really get better or worse. Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Paul, and Raddysh are gone, and John Carlson and Ilya Mikheyev have joined the fold – so, maybe a little worse. They are coming off of a fantastic season, and we will probably see more of the same come September. They may or may not win the division, but I think finishing top three is more than realistic.

I can see the Sabres dropping out of the top three, but that doesn’t make their spot easy to fill. This brings us to the Florida Panthers. After adding Brady Tkachuk, Jacob Markstrom, Radko Gudas, and bolstering their bottom six with Lars Eller and Sam Lafferty, the 2024 and 2025 back-to-back champions are set to insert themselves back into the conversation. Not only did they add some needed pieces, but they are healthy, which they were not last season.

Wild Card Is Realistic for Toronto

Losing Tkachuk was a blessing in disguise for the Senators, and they did bring in William Eklund. They’ve made the playoffs two years in a row, but I’m still not sold. There’s a lot of inconsistency in their game, and with improvements to the Maple Leafs and Panthers rosters, there won’t be much room for that.

By all accounts, the Bruins overachieved last season. JJ Peterka could have a positive impact offensively; however, it’s just as likely that he doesn’t. Their roster needs more change if they want to keep up with the division. Right now, they just haven’t done enough. They have the goaltending, no doubt, but beyond that, I’m not buying it. I’m not saying they will be pushovers, but it could be a challenging season for Boston.

We haven’t talked about the Metropolitan yet, but that division is better than in previous seasons. The Carolina Hurricanes will be great again, but the rest is up in the air. The Washington Capitals and New York Islanders should be better, as well as the Columbus Blue Jackets. With the Pittsburgh Penguins and Philadelphia Flyers, who were two and three in the Metro last season, your guess is as good as mine, but I think they will end up fighting for a wild-card spot. The New Jersey Devils and New York Rangers could be in the mix, but in the same breath, it wouldn’t surprise me if they are out of contention by March.

If two of those teams join the Hurricanes at the top of the Metro, that leaves five teams, plus the four we talked about in the Atlantic (including the Maple Leafs), duking it out for the last two spots. I’ll give you the Capitals, but beyond them, it’s a toss-up.

Making the Playoffs Might Be Out of the Leafs’ Hands

As promising as Gavin McKenna (the first-overall pick in the 2026 Draft) and Easton Cowan might be, their ability to contribute this season is still unknown. In a perfect world, they will be in Toronto’s top six. If not, the Maple Leafs don’t really have anyone to fill that role. Maybe Jack Roslovic, but he’s not someone I would want to rely on.

Again, I really like what management has done to improve the bottom six and the goaltending. The defence has certainly gotten better, especially if Chris Tanev is healthy. With that, what is a realistic expectation for this season?

I think the Panthers, Lightning, and Canadiens will be the top three teams in the Atlantic. It wouldn’t surprise me if the new roster and coaching staff in Toronto take some time to gel, while those three teams should hit the ground running.

I would put the Sabres in one of the two wild-card spots, but I don’t think they are guaranteed any success. They missed the playoffs for 14 years before finally making it in 2025-26. Last season was great for Buffalo, but they need to prove they can do it again, especially without the players they lost in the offseason.

That leaves the Maple Leafs, Penguins, Flyers, Senators, Bruins, Blue Jackets, Islanders, Devils, and Rangers all fighting for one ticket to postseason hockey. Assuming the Hurricanes and Capitals are one and two in their division, one of those Metro teams will be third. This is also assuming that the Detroit Red Wings won’t be part of the conversation, which they won’t be.

I think the Maple Leafs will be a good team this season. But there are a lot of teams who can play in the spring. We’ll see how it all comes together, but Toronto returning to the postseason might have more to do with the rest of the Eastern Conference than anything they do on the ice. All they have to do is take care of business and see where the dust settles.