Vancouver Canucks 2026-27 Player Projections: Nikita Tolopilo – The Hockey Writers – Vancouver Canucks

The Vancouver Canucks have a huge decision to make in the crease heading into the 2026-27 season. Do they keep the trio of Thatcher Demko, Kevin Lankinen and Nikita Tolopilo or choose two and run with a 1A/1B tandem? That question will likely be answered over the course of training camp and the preseason, depending on Demko’s health and what general manager (GM) Ryan Johnson and head coach Manny Malhotra feel is the best way forward for the rebuild. Until then, the Canucks will have three capable NHL goaltenders on their depth chart.

So, now that we’ve covered the American and Finnish parts of the trio in our 2026-27 player projection series, let’s turn to the undrafted Belarusian.

Looking Back at Tolopilo’s 2025-26 Season

Tolopilo could have been mistaken for a yo-yo during the 2025-26 season. He almost finished with an even split between the American Hockey League (AHL) and NHL, appearing in 19 games in the AHL and 21 in the NHL. Overall, he struggled in both leagues, stat-wise, finishing with a 3.07 goals-against average (GAA) and .897 save percentage (SV%) in the former and a 3.61 GAA and .881 SV% in the latter. That said, he showed flashes of what he could be as a full-time NHLer, even though he allowed three or more goals in 14 of his starts.

Tolopilo’s best stretch came at the end of January when he started three straight games and allowed only four goals. Unfortunately, since his team wasn’t adept offensively, he walked away with just one victory. It could have been his first career shutout, too, but it ended up being a team one because he had to miss 2:11 of the second period under the league’s concussion protocol. He was brilliant in the 2-0 win, stopping 32 shots; unfortunately, since Lankinen had to enter the game, the shutout couldn’t be credited to only him.

After another stellar performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs on Jan. 31, where he stopped 39 shots in a 3-2 shootout loss, including a penalty shot in overtime on Auston Matthews, Tolopilo returned to the AHL for a month before being called up to the NHL for good. Through March and April, he appeared in 11 games, starting eight of them, but couldn’t keep the puck out of the net. He only had one start where he kept the goals against under two – a 2-1 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights on April 7. He did finish the season with a win, though, stopping 24 of 27 shots against the Ducks on April 12.

Expectations/Role for 2026-27

Tolopilo’s future is up in the air right now. There are three paths the Canucks could take: trade him (the most likely scenario), keep him as part of a trio, or find a way to deal Demko or Lankinen. I don’t see Demko or Lankinen getting traded, and we really haven’t seen a trio work well in the NHL. It’s tough to get everyone ice time, and a roster spot is always tied up in a goaltender when it could be used for an extra forward or defenceman.

Tolopilo’s expectations, then, are to come to camp ready to compete. He will either force the brass to really look at trading one of their veteran netminders or increase his market value to more than a third-round pick. Demko and Lankinen’s ages don’t really fit into the rebuild timeline, while Tolopilo’s does. He is only 26 years old and could be a solid tandem partner for another goaltender of the future in Aleksei Medvedev.

If the Canucks do keep three goaltenders, the expectations shouldn’t change. Tolopilo needs to be ready for every start and stay relevant in the organization for the crease’s future or the trade market. All in all, it will be interesting to see how this story plays out as we approach the roster cutoff date.

2026-27 Projections

It’s tough to project what Tolopilo’s stats will look like this season. Regardless of what happens, the most he will be is a backup or part of a 1A/1B tandem. If he stays in Vancouver in a three-man rotation all season, I see 30-35 starts with similar stats to 2025-26. But that could change if the Canucks have a better defensive system in front of him with the new coaching staff.

If Tolopilo ends up elsewhere, that will probably jump to upwards of 40-45 or more. The one thing I don’t see happening is the Canucks gambling with placing him on waivers. He will be wearing the Orca or traded to another team; he won’t be sent to the AHL.

Other 2026-27 Player Projections