While home ice was something for which to strive at the onset of the season, whether the Montreal Canadiens or Tampa Bay Lightning ended up with the “advantage,” it doesn’t really matter. That much was obvious based on the lacklustre effort the Habs put forth in their final game of the season, a 4-2 loss to the host Philadelphia Flyers, which could have helped secure it.
Related: 3 Ways Canadiens Secure Home-Ice Advantage in 2026 Playoffs
With the first-round match-up already determined heading into Game 82 for each team, home ice hinged on whether the Habs could pull ahead in the standings by a single point. Obviously, they didn’t and the Lightning won out in the end.
However, with the two teams ending their seasons with virtually identical records and boasting similarly impressive ones at home and on the road, home ice alone, if even at all, won’t factor in regarding who eventually moves on to Round 2. The following five factors will, though:
5. David Reinbacher
It’s not often you lose a defenseman of Noah Dobson’s calibre to injury and can immediately plug in an up-and-coming fifth-overall pick to replace him. However, that’s the situation the Canadiens found themselves in when they called up David Reinbacher after the former sustained the ever-dreaded upper-body injury. The latter has since played his first two NHL games.
Reinbacher has big skates to fill, as Dobson led the league in blocked shots and co-led the Canadiens’ defense in goals (12). The degree to which head-coach Martin St. Louis will lean on him is uncertain. However, to give his better, more-experienced defensemen as much of a chance at success against the Lightning as possible, he’ll presumably have to give the 21-year-old a regular shift. How the rookie responds to whatever ice time he gets could act like the first domino in a chain reaction that determines the eventual outcome of the series.
4. Injuries in General
Dobson is simply the biggest name on the Canadiens’ side to be injured. Fellow-right-handed defenseman Alexandre Carrier is also out, potentially for two additional weeks, which would leave the Canadiens with just the one rightie on defense (rookie Reinbacher).
That’s not even getting into how forward Patrik Laine has not yet been activated despite sustaining a core-muscle injury a handful of games into the season. Some may disingenuously go so far as to argue not playing Laine negates the injuries on the back-end, but, regardless of how you feel about Laine’s play at even strength, he’s still a legitimate weapon on the power play who led the Canadiens in goals on the man advantage last season.
Needless to say, failing to start the series completely healthy is a huge disadvantage for the Canadiens against the Lightning, who for all intents and purposes officially are to end the regular season.
3. Victor Hedman
The official word is Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman, despite having been put on long-term injured reserve, is out for personal reasons. There’s little telling if he’ll pull a Nikita Kucherov and return for the Stanley Cup Playoffs, like the latter did from injury in 2021, going on to lead the Bolts in scoring as they defeated the Canadiens in the Final.
While that may come across as cynical without having all the information surrounding his leave of absence of available, the truth is as follows: Hedman is a former James Norris Memorial (2018) and Conn Smythe (2020) Trophy winner.
If the Lightning were as good as they were this season with him having played just 33 games (one goal, 16 assists), it’s clear his unexpected return could instantly transform them into top-end contenders. That they’re widely seen as contenders without him speaks volumes regarding how in tough the Canadiens are.
2. Discipline
While the Canadiens have lost valuable points this season as a result of a combination of ill-timed penalties and poor penalty killing, at least they seem to have addressed those two issues in recent weeks. They’ve only given up a single power-play goal in their last nine games of the season (22 opportunities; 95.5%).
For their part, the Lightning have a stronger overall penalty kill at a fifth-ranked 85.3%, compared to the Canadiens’ vastly improved (but still mediocre) 78.2%. However, what could come back to bite the Bolts is their last-in-the-league 420 penalties taken, which has resulted in a -13 net-penalty rating (-2 for the Habs). Considering the Canadiens’ have a fairly effective 23.1% power play (21.0% for the Lightning), a lack of discipline could come back to haunt them.
1. Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jakub Dobes
The Canadiens and Lightning boast similarly high-tempo offenses. On paper, the biggest disparity is in net, where the bolts boast veteran Andrei Vasilevskiy and the Habs do rookie Jakub Dobes.
While Dobes will almost certainly earn a few Calder Memorial Trophy votes resulting from an impressive 29-10-4 record (2.78 goals-against average; GAA, .901 save percentage; SV%), Vasilevskiy is a former Vezina Trophy winner (2019). Based on his play and stat line this season (29-15-4, 2.31 GAA, .912 SV%), he’ll probably end up a finalist again (at least).
The hope may be Dobes develops into a similarly successful No. 1 in due time. However, in the here and now it looks like a mismatch of a match-up in net. And, based on the two teams’ offenses, it comes down which goalie does the better job of stopping the opposing team’s offense. Dobes actually has more than a prayer of a chance, based on his recent play, though.
Since arguably his worst performance of the season against the San Jose Sharks on March 3, he is 10-4 with a .918 SV%. That’s around the point at which Dobes, who shares the same imposing 6-foot-4 figure as Vasilevskiy, took over starting duties from Sam Montembeault, who’s been relegated to a No. 3 role.
Such circumstances paint a vastly different picture regarding which team has the advantage in net, though. If Dobes can keep in his groove, the losses he sustained in his last two starts notwithstanding, he gives the Canadiens a legitimate starter who can literally stand toe to toe with the soon-to-be 32-year-old Vasilevskiy, with the benefit of not suffering the possible detriment of fatigue from eight straight seasons with postseason appearances.
Granted, since losing the 2022 Cup Final to the Colorado Avalanche, the Lightning haven’t gotten out of Round 1. That could be taken as a positive, looking at their prospects this postseason, if you’re a fan. It more objectively speaks to a team with a window that is closing. It’s up to the Canadiens to slam it shut. If they succeed, Dobes will have played a huge role in so doing (along with the door).
